Note Villain’s stack size. The river bet isn’t actually pot, it’s putting him all in for about $90.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($350.45)
MP ($1448.75)
Button ($1268)
SB ($845.25)
Hero (BB) ($1000)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 2
, 5
UTG calls $10, 3 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($25) 8, 3
, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $25, UTG calls $25
Turn: ($75) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $50, Hero raises to $225, UTG calls $175
River: ($525) 4
(2 players)
Hero bets $525, 1 fold
Total pot: $525 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero didn’t show 2, 5 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $522
He’s a fishy, so I’m not going to read too much into the fact that he just calls turn instead of sticking it in. I figure he’s got a (better) busted draw here and folds at least 20% of the time, and that’s enough to make the shove profitable.
I agree that against a full stack this is a profitable shove. Do you think that someone 1/3 stacking is generally going to fold after getting 2/3rds in (tournament logic, I know)? I agree it looked like they were drawing as well and as played you represented strong holdings. I just see these fish steam off the last of their shortings a fair amount (granted, I really do not play cash much anymore).
If anything, I think a short stack is more likely to just fold if he has nothing and not even think about whether he’s supposed to call with K-high. I’m not trying to get him to make some monster laydown, I think I am plenty profitable if he just folds all of his unpaired hands.
I’ve been trying those small bets recently and I like them a lot. If your bet is like 90 into 520 it has to work less than 1/6 times to break even. 76/JT/non Ahigh diamonds are a decent part of his range and your hand has 0 SD value. What would you do with Jhigh or Qhigh in this spot?
There’s a big difference between Q-high and K-high here. I’d definitely shove Q-high. I guess I can see a case for check-calling K-high, but it probably wouldn’t even occur to me in the heat of the moment.