We’re just inside of 100 people left in the monthly FTP $500, down from a little over 2000 who started.
UTG is a random who definitely does not play these stakes with any regularity. Googling his name reveals a few $.05/$.10 hands, so I’m sure he’s a satellite qualifier. He’s definitely playing his cards with minimal situational awareness or tournament skill, so while his opening ranges are tighter than those of a good tournament player, he’s a little on the spazzy side.
SB is a mid-stakes MTT grinder. This is definitely on the high end of events he plays, but he’s no stranger to $50-$100 buy-ins. He understands blind stealing, restealing, etc., and probably has roughly the same read on UTG that I have. I’ve been a little aggro, but nothing too out of line. Mostly just opening more than my share of pots, not a lot of 3-betting at all.
After I 3-bet, SB instantly shoved. UTG also could not have called any more quickly than he did. Also there is a lot of value to surviving this late in a soft, big buy-in tournament. The final table is going to involve playing for tens of thousands of dollars with more than a few total droolers.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 1700/3400 Blinds 400 Ante (8 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) (t76784)
SB (t156905)
BB (t75732)
UTG (t75947)
UTG+1 (t44140)
MP1 (t99171)
MP2 (t560635)
CO (t125960)
Hero’s M: 9.25
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q
, Q
UTG bets t7466, 4 folds, Hero raises to t19999, SB raises to t156505 (All-In), 1 fold, UTG calls t68081 (All-In), Hero?
Basically if both players are on QQ+, AKo, AKs, it’s a call. If we take the AK out of either one of their ranges, it’s a fold. If we add JJ into either one of their ranges, it’s a call. If it weren’t for the timing, I would have called. The fact that neither of them thought for even a second made me think AK was a lot less likely, so I folded. Shows what I know:
Flop: (t177693) A, 4
, 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t177693) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t177693) J (2 players, 2 all-in) Total pot: t177693
Results:
SB had A
, K (one pair, Aces).
UTG had K, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won t88847, UTG won t88846
Well, I would have been a big favorite, but here it saved me money. Which was irrelevant when several hands later I shoved 77 over a min-raise from a guy who was opening 40% of pots and the nittiest player at the table woke up with KK in the SB.
Maybe UTG is generally afraid of being out of his depth and getting outplayed. Getting it in preflop with a monster hand like AK may be all he’s been waiting for, therefore the instacall?
But this is speculation, and the fold certainly makes sense considering what you said about the value to surviving.
I can’t imagine even considering 3b/folding QQ 22 BB deep regardless of timing. utg is never going to fold AKo or JJ imo and may even call TT this shallow. As the 4bettor SB can easily be wider than QQ+ AKo+ especially since you have been semi-aggro and are isoing the fish
snap snap snapcall imo
IMO, AK is in both of their ranges. SB shoved, so with fold equity, AK is in his range. UTG is not sophisticated enough to know that there’s a difference between 4-bet shoving AK and calling a 4-bet shove with AK.
Good point about UTG. Think I was giving both of these guys too much credit.
I too believe that a decent player can have a range of at least JJ+ and AK. It’s a classical “he knows you know”-situation. Both of you probably made similar analysis regarding UTG:s hand: He probably has a hand, but it could be anything he likes and want to play. Middle pair, ATo, AJ is definately in this type of players range. Hence, SB would expect you to 3-bet with at similar range which makes AK as good as any hand to shove since he probably have som FE and will flip most other hands in a part of the tourney when you shouldnt fold to any spot you believed was a flip.
Fair points. Rightly or wrongly (the latter, clearly) his timing was actually a big factor in my decision. It’s not that I don’t think he could rationalize shoving AK here, it’s just that I’d expect him to have to think about it. That’s probably giving a random tourney grinder too much credit, though.