You Tell Me: What’s the Best Bluff?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($1541.35)
Hero (MP) ($3040)
CO ($1616.80)
Button ($615.60)
SB ($1609.55)
BB ($996.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP with ??
1 fold, Hero bets $24, CO calls $24, 1 fold, SB raises to $90, 1 fold, Hero calls $66, CO calls $66

Flop: ($283.20) 6, 2, 3 (3 players)
SB bets $144, Hero calls $144, CO raises to $402, 1 fold, Villain has $1123.60 behind

Villain is showing a ton of strength here, and it’s quite possibly most profitable here to exploit his likely unbalanced range by never bluffing. If I wanted to have some kind of bluffing range here, I believe 6h3h would be the best possible hand to bluff with (and yes that is a bluff- he isn’t calling a shove with worse). However, I am not calling 63s, 62s, or 32s pre-flop. Given that those are not in my range, what is the best possible hand for me to bluff with here?

11 thoughts on “You Tell Me: What’s the Best Bluff?”

  1. 57 with a 3 flush if you really think he only calls with a set or better. I would imagine you’re risking too much to make this play profitable even if he is bluffing say 10% of the time. When you heading to Vegas?

  2. Is 75s in your range? If so, something like 7c5c would have the most equity vs. a calling range of sets and straights. Otherwise, 6h5h or 6d5d are the only hands with anything approaching decent equity.

    • Winner! Yeah, I think I could show up with 75s here.

      Sadly, I somehow convinced myself in the heat of the moment that 55 was the best possible bluff (gutshot, straight blockers, and two outs vs. the smaller sets!) and shoved with that. He called with 33, and it didn’t end well for me. I’d be curious to know whether he calls with 22. I suppose if he isn’t going to call with it, he probably wouldn’t raise it.

      I’m such a fish.

  3. I am a novice, posting more for feedback than to be proven correct. It struck me that he might have A4 or A5 and is raising to drive out other draws. Might you be ok with A6? Would you have gone to the flop with that?

    • Hi Russ. That’s a great reason to post!

      I can assure you he isn’t calling with A4 or A5. Could he be raising them? Maybe. I’d actually expect his raising range not to include too many semi-bluffs, since raising those hands sets him up to get blown off of his draw if someone shoves.

      When making a decision like this, we are only concerned about his calling range. It doesn’t matter what he had if he folds. When deciding which hands we want to shove, we are going to look primarily at how those hands will perform when called. I think he calls only with sets and straights, and A6 performs very poorly against that range.

      Make sense?

  4. There’s really no equity diff between any of the pair + gutshots + bdfds when looking at your equity vs straights and flushes.

    It’s about 16%

    Given how you rarely get folds here. Your best hand to bluff with is…no hand.

    Even with 6h3h you have 19% equity, meaning you need to be getting a LOT of folds on the flop for this to approach profitable.

    • Equity vs. calling range isn’t the only thing that matters though. The big difference between 65 and A5 w/ the BDFD is that 65 also blocks two combos of sets. We’re only talking about 12 combos of value hands he can have (3 of each set and 3 54s- the 5 in our hand blocks one of those, and I don’t think he’s playing 54o), so blocking 2 of them is a pretty big deal.

      You’re right that he’s probably not folding often enough to justify shoving light here. FWIW, there could be other theoretical reasons to have a bluffing range, ie to get action when you do have a monster. If we aren’t shoving 6h5h here, then he ought to fold bottom set when we do shove.

      • Having blockers is implied – the point is even with the most blockers your equity is SO terrible and u get folds here basically never that i think shoving is spewy.

        This spot comes up so rarely that I can’t ever see you being exploited for never having a bluffing range here.

        How’s he going to know you’d never shove here with 65 or 75 (or 55 for that matter)?

    • He doesn’t have JJ-KK. I think it’s more valuable to have a 6 that blocks some of his calling range and gives you a shot to run out a full house.

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