…and not necessarily a good one.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($5664)
SB ($8603)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
, K
SB calls $25, Hero checks
Flop: ($100) K
, 2
, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $66, SB calls $66
Turn: ($232) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $187, SB calls $187
River: ($606) J (2 players)
Hero bets $411, SB calls $411
Total pot: $1428 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
SB had 10, 2 (two pair, tens and twos).
Hero had 8, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: SB won $1427.50
Then again, he did call me with a relatively weak hand, so I guess I sort of had the right read. Then again again, he’s a lot more likely to get to the river with a weak two pair than with a weak one pair.
You think if you raise pre, he gives your bets more thought to having an ace in your hand and thus hitting Broadway?
That’s a consideration. Also I’d been very aggressive in limped pots generally.
I think you need tweezers and a magnifying glass to pluck the +EV out of this one.
Looking at this the other way, if you check the river how often does villan check behind? Heads up I would expect to see a bet a lot of the time here, which would suck as there’s a lot I can’t beat … but it’s also the perfect bluffing card, and he’s calling with 10 2 pre-flop and on the flop so folding to $411 sucks too.
Just to make one thing clear, he open limped his button with T2, it’s not like he called a raise with it. And there was a lot of history of me barreling at him post-flop when he’d limped.
Now that I’ve slept on it, I think you have to bet. I’m not sure you have to bet as much as you did. Is he good and/or crazy enough to bluff-raise if you bet, say, $280?
I’m not really trying to get value here (although I’ll be happy if he calls with a lower pair). I’m just trying to get to the showdown as cheaply as possible. The board is such that I think a “nit” would have trouble doing anything except calling if you make a “call me” bet.
I can’t see any circumstances in which I’d check the river on a board like this against 99% of opponents at this level.
That was pretty similar to my reasoning. I don’t feel like I have to bet smaller just because I’m betting thinner, though. A larger bet can represent a polarized range, straight or bluff, against which one-pair may actually have more equity than if I make a smaller bet that seems more consistent with something like two-pair trying to get called.
Vs most 25/50 opponents, I agree with your reasoning on the bet size. I’m just wondering if it applies to this guy. I realize not all nits are weak, but a lot of them are. Against a weak-tight nit you’re probably no more likely to get called by one pair if you bet 411 than 280. Possibly much less likely.
But like I said, not all of them are like that, especially not HU players, and you have a history with this guy so you would have a much better take on this than I.
I didn’t mean to imply that this guy was a nit. He was TAG, but not necessarily a bad one, and he’d hero called me before.
Hmm, I like it honestly, though I’d like to know a little more about his pre-flop game in terms of raise vs limp % otb.
We chop with all the presumed Kx hands in his limping range – and if he’s calling T2 he’s prob calling most Qx.