I’ve posted a few hands recently where I floated AK and ended up bluffing the river to get an opponent off of a pocket pair. Here’s another:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($587.50)
MP3 ($867.20)
CO ($182.90)
Button ($316)
SB ($543.20)
Hero (BB) ($459.20)
UTG ($379)
UTG+1 ($322)
MP1 ($562.10)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A
, K
2 folds, MP1 bets $12, MP2 calls $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($38) 2
, 7, 7
(3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $38, MP2 calls $38, Hero calls $38
Turn: ($152) J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks
River: ($152) 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $52, Hero raises to $409.20 (All-In), 2 folds
Total pot: $256 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $253
The important read here is that MP2 is a pretty huge nit. That’s mostly a pre-flop read, but I really don’t see him hero calling the river even with AA. I mean it wouldn’t be a bad call, but it’s not one that I see him making. Pre-flop is some combination of drawing, as the A and K are often good if I hit them, plus banking on being able to run a bluff like this even if I miss.
If villain bets 102 on the river hero….?
MP2 makes mistake. Should have bet 125 on river. I think he takes the pot. His play would be consistent with having a set or hitting the jack on the turn. Would u shove all in with a larger bet on river. I really don’t know what MP2 is trying to accomplish with such a small bet on the river. Is there anytime that this makes sense?
Honestly I would have played it the same. You’re right that Villain’s river bet is transparent, but his real problem is that his range is face-up from pre-flop because he’s such a tight/predictable player. He never has better than two pair here, even JJ can be largely eliminated after he checks the turn, and I’m not sure he ever calls the river with less. I’m not worried about him pairing the J, because I think he can fold hands as good as AA on the river.
I imagine he bets small because he knows how clearly defined his hand is. He figured he’s probably best, but there’s not much reason for anyone to call a bet with worse because of how transparent his exact hand strength is. I guess the small bet is designed to induce a crying call, but you’re right that it’s bad, because it also induces stuff like this.