Raise-Folding Bottom Set

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($872.90)
MP3 ($1010.20)
CO ($389.50)
Button ($628.80)
SB ($444.90)
Hero (BB) ($1552.50)
UTG ($442.60)
UTG+1 ($401.20)
MP1 ($1206.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2
2 folds, MP1 bets $12, MP2 calls $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($38) 8, 7, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $26, MP1 calls $26, 1 fold

Turn: ($90) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $72, Hero raises to $299, MP1 raises to $555, Hero folds

Total pot: $688 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP1 didn’t show
Outcome: MP1 won $685

It may seem like I’m turning my hand into a bluff, but I believe worse hands will call the check-raise, but the only hands that 3-bet me will have me crushed. If he flat calls, I’m check-calling non-heart rivers.

9 thoughts on “Raise-Folding Bottom Set”

    • Those are certainly the best hands for him to bluff if he is bluffing. Frankly I doubt his ability to 3-bet the turn light when we are 300BB’s deep in the first place. With the hands you mention, I’d at least expect a larger 3-bet.

    • It’s possible, but that’s a very sophisticated play. I think my line looks very strong, and 22 is probably the bottom of my value range in this spot. Even if he’s capable of making this play without a better hand from time to time, folding 22 would probably still be correct.

  3. If he calls do you check call any 6, 9 or J too (or only the 9)? Also what do you do if another T hits?

  4. don’t you think with these stack sizes, if he did flop a set – MP1 puts in a raise on the flop into two players? i understand your cautious play due to the stack sizes and his smallish 3 bet on the turn, but your line here doesn’t exactly scream strength, at least to me. what do you think are the chances he reads you for this, and decides to make a semi-bluff 3 bet so when he is called, he has outs (Q9, Ah9h)?

    • One can legitimately argue the merits of slowplaying a set on the flop in this sort of situation, but the reality is a lot of players do it, right or wrong.

      It’s also entirely possible he had TT and turned a set. While yes, that’s a two-outer, once the ten hits how many outs he had before it hit is irrelevant. TT is certainly in the range of hands he would play exactly as he did here.

  5. Looks good nh

    I assume you c/r because you expect him to bet/call most overpairs and then make a river decision.

    Pretty cool line.

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