Edit: Villain 1 has me covered – think he had like 50K. Sorry I forgot to mention that important detail.
It’s Day 1 of the 5000 euro Main Event of EPT Berlin. Hero (me) has recently moved to a new table and been quiet in his first few orbits. Only hand I remember playing was opening to 525 in late position and folding when Villain 1 squoze to 1650. He went on to show KK after winning it pre and then to thank the dealer for giving him good cards (he had AA the hand before). Hero starts this hand with 36K.
Villain 1 is a balding middle-aged guy of indeterminate ethnicity and nationality. My best guess is French with some Arab ancestry, but I don’t have much confidence in that. He has a friendly face, not unlike Dopey from Snow White and Seven Dwarves, and so far has played tight and straight-forward. He’s also wearing a Guns and Roses tour t-shirt from 2011, which seems a little out of character for him.
Villain 2 is a late-twenties white guy who hasn’t said a word since I’ve been at the table but seems like he could be an American. Northern European would be my next guess. He handles himself confidently and, though he hasn’t shown down a hand yet, he’s been raising at the right times. He starts the hand with 13K.
Blinds are 100/200/25. I open to 525 with QQ UTG+1. Villain 1 makes it 1150 from the CO. Villain 2 takes his time and eventually 4-bets to 3200. As he does so, I notice that Villain 1 is watching him very intently.
OK, action is back on Hero holding QQ. What’s your play?
Post your thoughts, questions, and comments here. I’ll do my best to respond as they come in, and then I’ll post results and my own thoughts on Friday or thereabouts.
Villain 1 stack size?
I fold.
I’m assuming villain 1 covers or has similar stack size based on prior action described.
I think it’s too great a probability that one or both have AA, KK, or AK. You haven’t been at the table long enough to get a read that either of these players could be doing this with a marginal hand. Also, even villain 2 is relatively deep (M ~ 30) so doesn’t need to make a move. Villain 2’s stack size is also large enough to make a dent in your stack.
I’m not sure what to make of him looking at villain 2. Maybe they have some history prior to you joining the table? Maybe he is confident he has your hand beat (e.g. has AA or KK) but is trying to get a read on whether villain 2 is bluffing or also has a strong hand not as good as his?
By the way, how did you do today?
Snap fold. (This comment was too short go back and try again)
I wonder if AB posted this hand to see if anyone wanted to 5 bet bluff and get someone off KK/AK? Otherwise the real question in this spot would be, what would we do with KK? That’s how clear the fold with QQ is it seems to me.
I’ve been thinking about KK also. (And I’ve been thinking about why AB posted the hand, hence my ‘maybe we can put V2 on AK and then blockers matter!’ comment.)
I’m not quite sure what I would do with KK. As I put myself in the situation, I find myself worrying about specifically how much V1 is positionally aware. The positionally aware/unaware distinction cuts across the tight/loose distinction, so we don’t know that about V1 (and there’s a good chance AB had no way of knowing.) Against players I thought I had good control over, I could see myself calling. Over the table I could see myself folding, but the pause from V2 might get me to continue.
What do you think you’d do?
If we had a HUD on V1 I think we would be very mislead because his 3-bet frequency wouldn’t reveal the fact that he 3 bet with KK the time before. I want to focus on V1’s sizing. This is nothing but a value sizing from this player type in my experience. AB didn’t specify if V1 was oop the time he made it 1650 on 525 with KK, but considering we know AB was stealing in that spot it is likely that V1 was OOP in that hand and that we should take that as explanatory re: his sizing there and here. Meaning that this sizing 1150 on 525 does not disconfirm KK+ since he is in position. To be more specific I think if V1 has hands that are not nutted in his 1150 range, they are not hands against which we can get value by 5 betting. That’s because he either has a nutted hand or a hand he wants to play that kinda sucks, like A8 or KT or J7s. I don’t think he has much 99-QQ AK/AQ in this spot.
I supposed V2 has enough chips and the possible temerity with which to cold four and fold. That doesn’t really help us too much either in terms of 5 betting. His value range to do this is almost certainly QQ+ AK and I wouldn’t rule out that he would have hero folded the other QQ in the actual case that AB had been dealt QQ.
It seems to me then that we have three options with KK. 1. We can make it 5.5k, fold to a 6 bet from V1 and call off versus V2 (for clear but not awesome value). 2. We can flat, hoping that V1 flats, and play a 9.6k pot sandwhiched between a pot sized bet and a guy with 26k effective behind us (who covers). 3. We can fold.
In the case of 1 if we made it 5.5k and V1 shoved I would fold. That seems like an indictment of choosing option 1. We have 180BB and opened in EP. Do we really want to get 180 big blinds in preflop versus someone playing straightforward who is middle aged? The thing with KK in potential disaster spots like this is that it blocks both AK and KK very effectively. If does a very ineffective job of blocking AA. That’s one of the things the “never fold KK pre” crowd constantly overlooks. Its just combos. Against KK+AK, KK does not perform that well because the combos with 80% equity are 6, the combos with 30% equity are 8, and the combos with 50% equity are 1. And even if we get a scenario where V1 folded/flatted and V2 re-opened the action with a shove, its not like we have 75% equity against V2’s range either. In other words, we’re probably taking a lot of risk to get to a situation that might not be that awesome anyways.
That’s why I think its between flatting and folding. If we flat we are certainly going to confuse V1 about our range. However positionally aware he is, he is certainly not positionally aware enough to realize that we have legitimate concerns in this spot with KK. And therefore he will see our range as lukewarm strong, not alarm bells strong. If we flat and V1 re-opens the action and doesn’t flat I think we also have to fold regardless of V2’s response. There is just no reason to expect V1 would not flat with AK or QQ at that point. And if he does 5 bet those I think that’s just too bad for us. But the really great thing about V1 flatting as well is that we should expect him to 5 bet AA often. Not always, but often.
We risk losing value versus V2’s range by flatting but we could potentially gain value versus V1’s range by flatting. Those weak hands in his 3 betting range, should they even exist, will almost always be too tempting for him to fold facing the four bet and flat in front of him. Those we could stack hands like Q9s from him on Q high flops and so forth. Of course we could get outdrawn and our relative position is going to be the worst in the flatting scenario.
Re: v2’s blockers. We know we have KK. If V2 has AK then the distribution of QQ+ AK for V1 becomes 3 combos AA 0 combos KK 3 combos AK 6 combos QQ. Our equity in a 3 way all in confrontation is 48.8% KK v AK v QQ+ AK.
I don’t have any experience in these tournaments but I would be more prone to take plan 1 with AKs than KK. With KK, I think we have to flat with intentions to fold should V1 reopen the action. His body language is pretty strong.
It really doesn’t feel great when we fold to learn that V2 was making a move with A9o and V1 was just playing with his big stack with K9s. But it is worth pointing out that we can’t really make any money (besides the dead money in the middle) the times that is the case, because both aren’t going to continue facing a 5 bet. So the only way we could make money those times is by flatting. We might freeroll their weak holdings and lose value versus their AK (or get outflopped by AK), but I think that’s much superior to putting in stacks bad v V1. Particularly if we think of this hand being AB, since in a 3 way 4 bet pot with so much in the middle AB is probably going to make very accurate decisions regarding continuing or not continuing with a great hand like KK.
In sum I think there is a wide gulf between V1’s ability to get attached to a hand postflop and his ability to get attached to a hand preflop. As a result we can probably get him to put in a huge amount of bad money postflop relative to preflop. This fits neatly with the fact that we can’t actually 5-bet for value pre versus his continuing range and adds up to flat calling. We can 5-bet pre for value v V2’s continuing range but this isn’t a HU pot so we should just get that out of our head (tough bananas). But from a perspective of survival this is certainly a huge risk to take since if a 3 way post-flop scenario obtains we will probably be getting all in pretty often, and I am not sure how well having 400BB is going to serve us as compared to 180. I would wager the risk is well worth the reward, but maybe it isn’t. I know this, I would fold QQ without furrowing my brow.
Looks like a fold to me. If it were possible for V1 to be light, he (probably) isn’t anymore after he stares so intently at V2. Usually that sort of staring is the kind of attention that comes from (i) wondering how to get paid or (ii) wondering if he’s getting coolered.
So, V1 is almost certainly in the value part of his range, and maybe even the “yippee!” part of his range. Also, 1150 from a guy like that is likely to be strong in the first place. And, of course, guys who four-bet cold over UTG+1 raises and CO reraises are allowed to have good hands! For whatever it’s worth, if that were me, and if I were giving off a timing tell, it would be “gee, crap, I guess 4b’ing here is best despite all this strength,” and I’d probably have QQ, KK or AK. But I’d have to be at the table to ascribe this thought process to V2.
I suppose that there would be situations in which I’d have some V2’s who fit that description squarely on AK, which–given different reads on V1–might make QQ unfoldable due to how many combinations of AA/KK that takes out of V1’s range. But from what you’ve said, I think a fold here is clearly best, and that’s even before I take survival into account. (How much does V1 have?)
I think your ahead of #1’s range most of the time, but behind #2’s range over half of the time. I don’t think he has AA. His 4 bet is a little larger than usual for the nuts and he might even smooth call with aces. I think he would be satisfied with taking the pot pre-flop, thus I think he holds kings or AK. A small percentage of the time he holds AA.
I call 25% of the time, depending on read and stacks sizes and fold 75% of the time. When calling, I’m looking for a set or a low board flop. Definitely avoid further play with A,K,J on flop and be wary of possible flush draw. If I get a favorable flop and heads up with #2, I might shove looking to get it all in against AK on flop representing aces. I don’t think either player has AA and they would have a hard time making a hero call for their tournament life.
I don’t know yet why but the fold doesn’t seem that obvious to me.
I think V1 is a level 3 thinker.
V1 has shown good hands recently, so he is in a nice tight-agressive image, his raises seem “powerful” because of that history. Besides, even though it’s been only a few minutes since you arrived at the table, he already made you fold once. He can think your range is small enough for you to fold to a squeeze often enough for that move to be profitable.
I often think about the rule of 3, even though there is nothing incredible into it, if a guy raised already twice showing good hands each time, his next move would often be a semi-bluff or a bluff. Yeah, science !
With a good hand he squoze with 1650 which is a bit more than 3 times your bet. I see that his raise is only a bit more than twice your bet in here, perfect for fleeing in case of a reraise.
He doesn’t need to have a very high rate of success to be profitable.
By the way, Mike Caro told something about the staring like : “The guys staring at you are less of a risk than those looking away while betting”. Often the guys staring at someone do so thinking they can prevent them from betting. I often won pots in live games by raising them. I know, I know, but it’s only a gut feeling I listen to, science again !
V2 is a level 4 thinker to me.
V2 raised at the “right times” which means he made profitable raises where he knew nobody would actually try to fight back for the pot. He is clever enough to avoid too risky spots and I can understand why you almost never saw a hand going to showdown with him.
I can imagine V1 already got raised back by V2, that’s why V1 is staring at him, perhaps looking for a weakness tell.
He doesn’t have such a huge stack, he must accumulate chips “safely”.
Isn’t it, right now the exact best opportunity to raise back V1 from V2 ? He knows V1 is light in this raise, he knows also that you don’t have many hands in your range that would fight back against a reraise. Actually, what a “normal” player would do here ? Which kind of hands are going to 5bet V2? Only AA and perhaps, perhaps KK. I don’t see AK or QQ risking more money here.
Summing-up ! :
V1 is not scared of you because he thinks he would make you fold by squeezing often enough to show a profit. By staring, he wants to prevent V2 from raising him because V1 knows he is too light to go into that pot if it’s reraised.
V2 knows that V1 would often squeeze light here because of his “tight” image. V2 knows also that your calling/raising range to a reraise is extremely narrow in this kind of spot (AA and PERHAPS KK), by reraising he is quite sure of pushing V1 out.
I actually think it’s a very good spot for him to be 4betting here.
I would actually push him back with a good 5bet, around 9.5k. If you bet 13k it’s like saying “I totally saw your move boyo, I’m outsmarting you right now”.
By this reraise you are representing the top 2 hands of your range. He won’t have AA in this spot often enough, and would fold KK- the majority of the time, so your move would be EV+.
After all he is looking for cheap spot, you are representing such a narrow range, he doesn’t know you and has 10k behind which he can surely use “safely” another time.
Calling is acceptable, but after all, like Keith said you are afraid of any K or A on the flop, I would be glad to get all this money right now without a showdown.
I hope my thinking is good enough !
Thanks for the thorough comment, Luis. Why do you say V1 is a level 3 thinker?
Alright it’s all such a guessing game but if I go even further into my hypothesis, I would think that V1 raised you because of his image without too much thinking about V2.
He only thought about getting some profit from you hoping your would fold more often than not.
I don’t say he can’t have a hand, actually because of his tight tendencies I find it quite possible that he’s got A-Jish hands or 88+ hands.
Thus the staring game after. I don’t think his staring means he is strong enough in this hand. I’m not there so I can’t see it, but more often than not, staring opponents while waiting for you to act are not strong.
I think he is aware of his tight image to you because he’s shown good hands but forgot to think about V2’s view of him. He forgot to think a bit further. So that would make him a level 3 thinker to me.
By the way, rereading your article on levels of thinking I am not sure that’s the right level. I think what I more wanted to say is that he is quite aware of his tight image which doesn’t make him a level 1 or 2 but he is a level behind V2.
If he is a level 1 thinker… then I think he would reraise us right after because of KK-AA and we are in deep sheisse ! Or not because we would fold.
Actually, can calling V2 be a fine play ? We would draw V1 to get into the pot with smaller hands than us and raising with the two better ones. But any A or K on the flop would make us cry because of V1’s range and actually it would be a good bluffing opportunity from V2 if he doesn’t have any A or K.
If the flop doesn’t have any A or K I think we would get a check from V1 and a bet (or all-in) from V2 because it’s perhaps the only way of earning the pot after all. But I find it too tempting to avoid such a situation by raising. I speak for myself here but I would have such a hard time losing this hand with QQ knowing that 50% of the time I got myself bluffed by V2.
I think I stick to my previous post, I prefer to raise here, be the agressor, polarizing our range to KK+, making both of them fearful because also they don’t know us yet we have a higher chance of succeeding. If V2 is good enough he can even be a bit frightened of us if we show QQ in this spot.
V1 has a chance to fold KK and would even perhaps show it to us which would confirm that he is a level below V2.
V2 can guess he must have more than KK to call/raise all-in since he is the “right spot bet” guy. And if he is weak enough to think such a good raise is not showing that much strength, he can raise us all-in with a worse hand giving us the opportunity to get this dangerous player out.
I can’t wait to see your answer mister Brokos because I love this game !
I also think it’s a general feeling about the guy, thanking the dealer, showing his good hands… I think I can feel like seeing myself six months ago in this guy 🙂
I hope my poker thinking level got better but…
I know that I’ve got so much to learn though, I’m only at the bottom of the mountain.
In this spot, I’m more inclined to think that V2 is capable of squeezing me light than V1. V1 doesn’t seem, from your description, to do much more than bet his hands. V2 is probably more aware of what reaction he expects from you(folding AJ, AQ and 99-JJ) in this spot. V1 also seems like the type player to 5 bet shove his AQ after your fold… doh! And fold is exactly what I’d do here, mainly because it’s day 1.
My first thought is easy fold. On second thought I think there might be some merit to making it like 5800 and folding to to a V1 raise but calling a V2 shove.
I was also wondering about making a small raise to V2.
I find the move harder than just a huge reraise to around 9k.
– By raising to 9K we are showing a lot of strength
– It allows him to call and push all-in on any flop and facing an A or K is just a harder decision
– V1 gets better odds and can just call, and I want to clear the path with QQ
– I think V2 would bluff all-in only 50% of the time, the other 50% being KK or AA
– I would prefer to get all this money right now, facing an all-in relaunches the decision process
Since we are the most unknown element at the table, he can be pushed to backing off and fold with all his bluffs or lesser hands but reraise all-in only with his best hands (ie KK or AA).
One thing that makes this hand so tough is if you make it more then like 8K V1 can call with AK,JJ,10…etc knowing V2 shove won’t re-open the betting. 3200+5000+5000=13200k.
I think V1 does not have AA/KK more then 80% of the time and that V2 is making a move but I still fold.
Is that really such a problem? Could just make it less than 8K. Nor do we mind that much if he wants to call JJ/TT. V1 wouldn’t need to have AA/KK anywhere near 80% of the time for us to fold…
I actually wrote “does NOT have AA/kk more then 80% of the time”. Though I am not as convinced of that when I wrote it. I still feel like V1 has AK like 50% of the time. And I was thinking (maybe wrongly) that if we bet less then 8k we have to really worry about v1 flatting, v2 5bet shoving, and v1 6bet re-shoving (if we call the 5bet). If we bet more then 8k it seems like a huge tell we don’t have aa/kk and v1 can easily call the big bet(8k+) with AK. I can’t say I’m sure of anything in this hand 🙂
Our options:
Fold: We’ve invested 525 and this might be correct if Villain 2 has been paying attention as he doesn’t have reason to think we’re really light as we’re somewhat new and Villain 1 has been tight/straight forward.
Flat -> Villain 1 folds: We get heads up with Villain 2 who put in about 25% of his stack cold 4 balling into a relatively new person and a tight Villain 1. I think we’re most likely set mining and I don’t think we’re getting the right odds to call.
Flat -> Villain 1 5b or all in: regardless if Villain 2 calls or folds I think it’s a fold now. We raised and then called the 4b. I’d expect Villain 1 to have AA/KK after this action almost always.
5b (putting V2 all in) -> V1 folds: I think we only want to take this line if we think V1 is going to hero fold KK/QQ/AK and that we believe that V2 is 4b AQs+, AA-TT which I’m not sure he would be.
5b (putting V2 all in) -> V1 6b’s: we sigh fold.
We haven’t seen V1 get out of line yet so he might take us for a weak/tight or weak/loose since he’s already 3b us and we folded. Maybe he’s thinking he can do it again. Maybe V1 is only 3b with the goods of AA/KK/AK. I think if we could be sure V1 was also going to flat it might be worth a set mine OOP since if you hit your set you almost guaranteed to get all the money in vs V1 and V2 with how the action has gone on the flop.
I feel that unless there has been some sort of dynamic between V1 and V2 that we’re not aware of we should fold. We’re not sure if V1 is going to 5b if we flat or if he’s going to 6b if we 5b. Also to have V2 put in 25% of stack in vs what I’m guessing are the 2 bigger stacks would have me thinking he’s not light and more of range of AA/KK/AKs.
Fold > 5b/fold > flat/fold
Reading over some of the other posts I like clicking it back now with a min-5b to 6400. I think you might get V1 to fold KK with the way the action has gone.
I don’t have stove so I’m not sure what our odds are vs V2’s range of AKs, AA-JJ but I’m guessing we have 0 fold equity vs him.
Another route we might like to look at is trying to get V1 to 5b/6b shove to maybe get V2 to maybe fold. Even though he’s got 25%ish of his stack in, it’s got to look a lot like one of has AA and he might fold KK if we can convince V2 that either we or V1 has AA.
Is V2 out of position? He could be on the button … are we assuming he is SB or BB? I didn’t see that info called out.
Looking at the 3 choices we always have folding does seem to be the quickest and most prudent with only 525 invested into around a 5000 pot. Don’t think I am folding here too much … V1 just had AA and KK, not to say he doesn’t have them again, but more than likely he has lower pairs or big Aces. It is possible with the ‘min’ type raise that he wants someone to go over the top so he can shove but at this point I think his range is mostly behind QQ.
So 2625 to call is not a great price against AA or KK, but do-able with some implied odds from V1 if he comes along, it also would prevent V2 from shoving until you see the Flop. However I don’t think you really define V1’s hand since he can now call 2050 into around 8000 with a pretty wide range and possibly be in position if V2 is not on the button. Calling also doesn’t define Hero’s hand totally, but most would think that AA or KK would shove here to just take down the pot or push V1 out.
A min raise to 6500 puts more pressure on V1 to shorten his range whether it be a call or shove but it allows V2 to shove regardless of what V1 does and is that a door that should be left open right now? V2 pretty much knows that you are calling his shove even if the price is wrong at 7000 into around 19K if V1 folds.
A 4th option would be to shove and hope neither has AA or KK to take the pot down right now or get a call from V2 with AK, JJ or 10s. This would be a very acceptable result.
Not really an option, but part of the thought process needs to be how do we create a scenario where we get V2 all-in and V1 willing to put more than 13K into the pot so if we lose to V2 we can re-coup some chips from V1. In order to do this we must build a bigger pot pre-Flop so that a wider range of hands that we can beat are priced into some Flop or Turn betting. Not sure that the stack sizes are right here … if V1 had more behind a Hero all-in, then this might happen more often but probably not here without a dream Flop. And I’m not sure you want to try and do this with less than AA or KK.
Folding 20% of the time.
Calling and folding to any all-in 47% of the time.
Min re-raise and folding to any all-in by V1 and cry calling V2 28% of the time.
Shoving and hoping that V1 doesn’t have AA or KK 5% of the time.
I think it is very good to think that since we showed tight play and opened from early position that we have 10s or better and no worse than AQ suited in our range … but early on a Day 1 against unknown opponents you just have to go with how you are feeling at
the time.
“Not really an option, but part of the thought process needs to be how do we create a scenario where we get V2 all-in and V1 willing to put more than 13K into the pot so if we lose to V2 we can re-coup some chips from V1.”
I find that idea very interesting !
Unfortunately I think if V1 puts more money preflop he must really often have a genuine (better) hand but it’s also because I see V1 as a level 3 thinker.
By the way, you don’t seem to wish to put more than a min reraise ?
How can a min-reraise look like to V1 or V2 in your opinion ?
Same question for Shawn !
My thinking on a min raise here is 3-fold. One, it is large enough to make V1 really think about a call here as he needs to add over 5000 more into the 11K plus pot to call with another to act behind (his range has to narrow down to call and hope that V2 doesn’t shove) … it is possible that we need a slightly larger raise to ‘price’ him out, but I am also secondly trying not to force an all-in from V2 with a larger raise. V2 calling a min raise puts 30BB behind and he can get away from alot of Flops with an ok tournament stack. Lastly, I am not calling any additional raises from V1 pre-flop, so why put out any more chips than I need to to send the ‘i have a real hand here’ message. If V2 shoves, then we cry call.
I understand you whole point and find that it makes a lot of sense. V1 would really have to think about calling since a min-raise is cheap and can be showing an even more lot of strength to him and you want him to reraise only with the top two hands. It would be hard for him to think we are bluffing.
I was wondering though, why letting V2 with the opportunity to shove if you are crying to call his all-in anyway ?
I love to better my chances of him folding by raising too much for his raise all-in to have any fold equity.
I am only raising 1 out of 4 times. You have to pick your poison here … price in V1 with a call only or give V2 the opportunity to shove against our min raise. I only use ‘crying’ since I figure he is shoving with AA, KK 100% of the time and JJ, 1010 or AK, AQ only 30% of the time. Against this range I am behind more than ahead. You could also factor in the times when V2 may fold (thus my 30BB point) but I think he is way more likely to call with what is in the pot than fold at that point in the hand. If he is ‘squozing’, then you pick up the pot while protecting yourself from V1’s all-in.
Unfortunately none of the hands we’re crying against are going to fold no matter what we do. If we could make him fold AK or KK, that would be great, but when we talk about inducing from him, it’s from hands worse than QQ, which we would like him to get it in with.
My first instinct (while analyzing) is auto-muck. This seems so obviously the “right answer” that I am wondering if there is something else going here. The live tells don’t say much except that I know intently look often happens when you don’t like what villain is doing. Unknown young white villain from America/Northern Europe is exactly the kind of player who might do this light.
Bizzare is this might sound I actually think it might not be that bad to flat QQ here and fold if V1 re squeezes. I can see V1 flatting a wide variety of his 3-bet hands here and I very much doubt we are ever getting exploited here (I.E. if he raises he has AA/KK for sure). Pretty sure fold is correct though.
If V1 earlier squeezed with KK to 1,650 then I think we can´t really put much into his betsize. 1,650 vs. open+call and 1,150 vs. single open seem pretty consistent to me … or am I wrong?
Anything else is too much guesswork in my opinion to do anything else than fold … as far as the information goes we have no single hint that V1 is doing anything else than playing his hands, right? He even thanked the dealer for his good cards, so he´s most likely a recreational player – and I wouldn´t expect any fancy steal-moves vs. a obviously competent UTG-raiser. That said – unless V2 had some more information, it just looked suicidal to me to invest 1/4 of his remaining stack try to bluff the OR and V1 off their hands … He could just ship and close the shop, right?
The more I think about it, the less I can see any other option than just folding. 🙂
It is certainly possible that V1 is ‘playing the rush’ and messing with you. V2 may have recognized this and is re-stealing but that’s kind of expecting a lot of things to go precisely your way.
From an ABC poker perspective V2 is ahead of you (and not deep enough) so you should fold. I would need more reads or evidence to go against the straightforward way of looking at the hand.
Also, we are OOP against the big stack and he still gets to act after. If we were IP against the bigger stack or got to close the action pre-flop then I think the other options would merit some consideration. There are just too many things going against us here = fold.