Sorry I’ve been slow to report on this, but sadly it’s because I didn’t have much to report. After a relatively uneventful Day 1, I busted on the last before the end of level 8 (with two still to go before finishing for the day).
I busted after 5-bet shoving KTs into what turned out to be AK. As you may know/guess, I’m not generally one to embrace pre-flop raising wars in a tournament. I’ve thought on it for a while, and I still feel OK about this spot despite the outcome, but I’m curious to hear what you think. Here’s the context:
Guy on my left is an aggressive Frenchman, roughly my age (late 20’s/early 30’s) who’s been playing well. In particular, he’s 3-bet quite a bit, both in and out of position, against late position raisers. I’d folded to him a few times, and the one time I did call, he checked and folded (he was SB to my BTN) on a dry flop. The fact that the chose not to bluff the flop there when he missed tells me that he expects me to have a tight calling range. He is table chipleader with 130K.
Guy two seats to my right is a young northern European who is new to the table. He seems confident and has been playing well in the short time he’s been with us. He has about 55K.
Guy in the BB is an older guy who is actually rather aggressive, but I don’t think Northern European knows that. He has 12K after posting the BB.
Blinds are 300/600/75. The northern European opens to 1400 (table standard) from the HJ. I expect him to have an extremely wide range here, since BB’s only real option is to shove, and it’s an awkward size for him to shove, plus as I said the kid may assume that because BB is older he’ll be extra tight. I call KTs on the BTN.
Frenchman in the SB makes it 4200. I think he recognizes the whole ideal-steal dynamic, and besides he just generally likes to 3-bet a lot against late position raises, plus I also think he expects me to fold a lot. In other words, so far, I’m not giving anyone much credit.
Now northern European makes it 7125. Stacks are such that I don’t think he can do this for real thin value against the Frenchman, because I doubt he wants to get nearly 100BB all-in pre with AQ or TT. So I think he has to flat some relatively strong hands. Certainly he can 4-bet QQ+ and AK for value, but I also have to assume that he’s capable of 4-betting light, and this sure looks like a spot to do it given everything I’ve described already.
So I decide to ship for 36K (there’s about 15K in the pot). It can be tough to rep a big hand after just calling the initial raise, but in this case I think it’s reasonable to think I might have flatted a big one because of the size of the BB (he’ll shove any hand he wants to play) and because of the squeeze-happy SB (he at least knows he’s squeeze happy, even if HJ doesn’t). I think that in addition to picking up the dead money from all their light 3- and 4-bets, I may get one or both of them to fold a few hands they were 3-betting for value (SB especially has hands like TT and AQ in his range that he won’t want to call off, especially with a 4-better still to act behind him).
Unfortunately SB woke up with AK. I had an open-ended straight flush draw and a live T on the turn, but nothing got there on the river.
Good news is that my friend Soeren is still in it after Day 2 and crushing with a double-average stack. They’re in the money already, and we swapped 5%, so I’ve got a little something coming to me. Now if he can just get 6th or better, I’ll be even on the series 😉
may have overestimated fold equity, but just an unlucky set up
Can’t be both! If I overestimated fold equity, then it’s a bad shove – hardly an epic cooler to get KTs vs AK for 60 BBs 🙂
I don’t know enough about bet sizing in these tourneys to say with any conviction, but when “Now northern European makes it 7125” it looks like to me he wants to get called by a worse hand or at least doesn’t mind it(I’m saying he thinks French guy has a worse hand). 4200 to 7125 so 3125…so 325 more then a min-raise (4200-1400=2800). More of a question then statement but doesn’t Villain raise to 8k or 9k if he is just stealing?
Fair question. I will say that sizings tend to be small, especially when the raiser has position, as you get up into 4th and 5th pre-flop bets. Even if you’re right that his sizing indicates that he wants or doesn’t mind a call, that could mean a few things:
1. He has a medium-strength hand like AQ/AJ that he thinks is ahead but that can’t stand a 5th bet. Thus, he doesn’t want to put SB into push/fold mode, which would turn his hand into a bluff. A very small raise would aim to drive me out of the pot and get more money in against 98s or whatever SB might have. In my OP I indicated that I didn’t think he’d raise a hand like this, but actually given the sizing he may have.
2. He may be bluffing but not mind a call because he’ll still have position and the betting impetus post-flop. Thus, even if SB calls with a hand like 98s getting very good odds, he’ll often end up folding post-flop anyway.
Andrew,
Seems like you overthunk/leveled yourself. How did you think KTs was a good hand to do this with? I remember in a video of yours (from a long time ago) that AXs is a much better hand to shove in this spot.. so you have a blocker to the nuts and you have atleast 30% equity when called.
As you said, really doesnt sound like you.
Enjoy Europe!
Yea, I would rather have had Axs, but that doesn’t make it automatically a bad play with KTs. I still have a blocker to AK and KK, an overcard if called by QQ, etc. Big difference between this hand and 85s, for instance. That said, it wouldn’t be the first time I overthunk myself 😉
You started hand with 62bb, called 2.5bb and shoved 59.5bb with KTs behind a 4bet. I have to believe that you would get one caller and that your range is behind the caller. With 50bb or more, its always nice to see a flop. This seems like more of a cash play than tournament.
It also seems like they both want to build the pot.
I just don’t see them both folding.
Thanks for the comment, but I’m afraid I don’t follow your arguments. What makes it “more of a cash play?” Also, “seeming” like you want to build the pot is consistent with either a value hand or a bluff – my argument was that I thought that both of them had much wider bluff than value ranges.
Tournament with 60bb. Enough chips to steal the blinds or push someone off a better hand post-flop with C-bet or check/raise. A shove is for your tournament life.
Cash game with 60bb. Enough room to make a play. If you shove and lose, you can reload, and you gain information on your opponents.
Would you make the same play in the WSOP? My biggest tournament leak is boredom setting in and playing a hand that I should have folded.
If I see you make that play in a cash game, I make a note to avoid you with everything but strong holdings, since you will shove light. It’s tough to play someone with that style in a cash game. I have to change my style and call down light and it’s probably not something I’m prepared to do.
You say it’s tough to call down light in a cash game, but for all the reasons you give about survival being important in a tournament, isn’t it tougher to call down in a tournament? Hence, isn’t this a better play in a tournament than in a cash game (which isn’t to say it’s necessarily good in either)? That’s the thing about the survival sword: it cuts both ways. Generally you see higher levels of aggression in tournaments because there’s a disincentive to put the last of your chips at risk, something the caller is much more likely to do than the better/raiser.
I’m obviously going to lose this discussion, but I do think a light bulb went off in my head. I have a hard time chipping up in tournaments without quality hands. Reading your comments, I realize I might be playing too passively for the most part. I need to insert more of a cash game approach into my tournament play.
Thanks for your comments.
Glad to hear it. The hand I posted may not be the greatest example, but finding ways to generate fold equity really is the key to tournament success.
I think it might depend on how juicy you think the spot is (because you like to err on the side of caution in close spots in tourneys pre). That way you can see what happens and use later hands to evaluate the dynamics.
This part definitely sucks:
“I had an open-ended straight flush draw and a live T on the turn.”
How could you not get there?
Tc = gin card? Or Td?
I don’t like the shove at all.
I think you are counting on WAY too many SPECIFIC reads to be correct. Look at the chain of dominoes – if any are wrong then your ship is bad:
N Euro opens HJ wide
all villains believe you would often-enough flat a strong hand
France is squeezing light (knowing there’s BB who can shove)
N Euro recognizes France squeeze and re-squeezes
That’s a lot of things to get precisely right. FPS IMO
More likely:
N Euro opens a normal HJ range
you flat a medium strength hand
France re-raises with a polarized range but with plenty of strong hands
N Euro has a very strong hand (probably not AA, KK) and raises to get position and value
Oh no, I wanted you to go far into that tournament sir…
You didn’t talk about your actual image at the table, I feel like it’s important here.
Objectively, without putting any feeling/sentiment into the situation :
Baguette-boy is agressive, his raise means nothing much right now, I’m okay with that !
I feel a bit less inclined than you do to say that Viking-boy’s reraise doesn’t mean much. That doesn’t mean I don’t trust your thinking, you are the one living the hand after all ! But I do think that the fact that Viking-kid bet, got raised and now is reraising, is a lot for a 4bet light. If a guy seems so willing to put that much money into the pot, not trying to second-guess his intentions, I would raise an eyebrow.
Objectively, this hand is giving a bit too much action for my KTs, without overthinking or getting into the head of any of them. I would be more willing to fold. Call me a nit !
Now getting into their head, putting psychology into it :
You said that Viking doesn’t know Baguette to be a squeeze-happy, isn’t it giving more strength into his reraise ? His range must be even higher then, if he calls, you would mostly be in a bad gamble, wouldn’t you ?
Baguette has raised a lot and you said “he is aware of it”. He knows his image can get anybody to push a bit too far, it’s a winning situation for him, he squeezes, you fold. He repeats, you fold.
Until someone can’t take it anymore, widens his range, raises and gets called when Baguette finally gets a hand where he can call you lighter than usual given his image and his stack. He is the one having the license to gamble while your stack isn’t big enough to do so.
If Viking wasn’t into the pot, I would be far more happy to 3 bet (around 8-9k would do) Frenchman knowing his range is wide. Having two people fighting for the pot makes it more likely that someone got at least a good A. Thus, my move in this spot would not be EV+. Also, I don’t have much fold equity given his knowledge of being the 3 better, he would lower his calling range.
I’m not blaming you for your play as I find it’s in general a good one (a bit agressive perhaps), but in that spot in particular, I think I don’t agree with you. I’m pretty sure right now you should be the one betting “at the right times”, finding good spots to exploit and having license to gamble only with good pockets or AKs against frenchman if you go all-in. He knows that you know he is large right now. He knows you would push with lesser hands. I don’t think he gave you much credit thinking it was the time the angry fruit was ripe since he had AK, it would be above your “can’t get it anymore” range.
You can raise with less than that, but I don’t think you should commit yourself right now.
I’m a bit weird but when I see this kind of move I’m always wondering : What was your mental state at this moment in the tournament ?
What were you feeling about Baguette ? Were you feeling tired of being 3bet often knowing it was light ? Were you feeling like this guy was stealing too much ? If you look closely inside, did you feel some bitterness or resentment ?
I know you are one of the top players out there and you have such a high control of yourself. I know for myself that being live is different though and sitting at a poker table would generally give me way more feelings than online playing.
Given my low level poker, I feel like terrible pointing this out as an (I hope not) offending comment Andrew but I wonder if it’s not a semi-tilt move from you sir !
You have baguette-eater who you know to be agressively 3betting late raisers or limpers. You want to get that money from his 3 bets/4 bets and give him a good folding lesson.
When you open KTs, you feel like it’s a good hand to do so and you STICK to it as a hand above his range in general and mentally commit to this hand not matter what.
That’s actually a mistake I would make sometimes. That would also be my reading of the situation sir, do you think this kind of thinking can apply to yourself ?
Oh and take my comment easy, there is no blame, that’s the way I’m treating myself when I review hands and I hope my insight can apply to yourself too ! And also, it’s easy for me to analyze the situation like that, I was not playing it after all…
Have a nice beer to soothe the pain !
Weird spot.
If you felt like you could represent hands that were trapping a squeeze in the first place did you consider the fact that you could have had much stronger hands with which to do this with? In other words, don’t you have hands in your flatting range that are in fact trapping a squeeze in the first place?
I feel like you did such a good job evaluating the dynamics involved in this hand that had you been dealt AK or QQ+ you would have done a similarly good job evaluating the dynamics at the table and would have flatted the initial raise. But I also feel like your opponents, as good as they were playing, would not have been able to recognize that to be in your bag of tricks and more than likely would perceive your range to take this line as capped at AQ 99 or possibly worse. This is a long-winded way of saying I think you would have and could have exploited them both in this spot had you been dealt AK QQ+. Because you are probably doing that, you probably don’t need to do this :D.