Q: Is there anyway to quantify the difference in value between a 2-gapper (4-7) and connector (4-5)? I understand a 2-gapper can only make a straight two ways and a connector can make it four ways … do you just cut the various probabilities in half?
Personally I don’t feel like I have a very crisp sense of the difference in value between 45s and 47s.
A: There are tools like Flopzilla that can help you determine how often your hand will flop a straight, but I think the most important thing for me here is to disagree with the unspoken premise that the primary value of these hands lies in their ability to make straights. There are exceptions, but your overall approach to no-limit hold ’em should not be to try to make big hands like straights and flushes and then hope to get paid off. Ed Miller calls this playing poker like it’s a slot machine, and it’s rarely the optimal strategy (though I published an article recently about an exception).
Making a straight or flush is worth a lot, of course, but it happens so rarely that it doesn’t contribute as much as you might think to your bottom line. I suspect that selective memory causes people to overestimate the value of winning big pots (a rare and exciting event!) and underestimate the cost of chasing draws and giving up when they miss, resulting in a larger number of relatively small losses that are incorrectly rounded to 0 when in fact they may well sum to more than the occasional big wins.
Far more frequently, you’ll make a draw or a single pair, and because these are more frequent events, their relative values contribute more to the overall expectation of your choice to play a given hand pre-flop. Yes, 76 makes more straights than 74, but the number of eight-out draws it makes is disproportionately higher yet. There are many situations where betting an eight-out draw will be profitable but betting a four-out draw will not, which means that 76s ends up producing a lot more profitable semi-bluffing opportunities than 74s. And because 76s can more frequently continue with its straight draws, it more frequently gets to see straightening turns in situations where 74s would have folded the flop.
Finally, don’t discount the value of making a pair of 6s with 76s. It isn’t tremendous, but it isn’t nothing, and it is somewhat better than making a pair of 4s.
None of these are huge differences, and there are many situations where both 74s and 76s are playable. However, there are many more situations where 76s is barely playable. Suited connectors often form the bottom parts of pre-flop ranges, hands with near-zero EV that are played in order to provide board coverage. Thus, all those little edges that 76s has over 74s are often enough to make the former a barely profitable call or raise and the latter a fold.
It might be worth noting too that 74 makes the nut straight one way but 76s does it 3 ways. 74s makes a more disguised nuts and 2pair though, but those are rare cases. One more small difference is if a situation calls for a wide 3betting or squeezing range preflop I’m more likely to raise with 74s because there is more value in calling 76s. Usually though if I’m squeezing with 74s I’m doing it with 76s too, same with 3betting.
Interesting question.
I think the biggest mistake I have made in the past is having hard cutoffs for which hands I will play and which I won’t no matter the situation. so usually 76s makes the cut but 74s doesn’t.
However, the only true reason to play 76s or 74s is not because the hand has inherent value but because the situation is ideal for it.
Some examples
1. We are trying to pick up the dead money
2. We are trying to isolate a weak player who plays face up post flop
3. We are trying to take advantage of someone’s wide 3 bet range (by 4 betting or cold 4 betting)
4. Our image is really tight due to running card dead for a while.
In most of these situations, it doesn’t really matter if we have 76s or 74s. We are trying to win the hand pre flop or post flop without showdown.
Yet most of us fold 74s but play 76s when above situations arise. I think it is just due to fear of the unknown. We have never played 74s, we don’t feel comfortable playing it. We don’t play it.
If our opponents are making big folding mistakes pre or post flop, I think 74s and 76s are both profitable. Against tougher opponents who don’t make obvious mistakes, 74s becomes a bit ambitious while 76s still retains its potency in many spots.
This recreational player and Thinking Poker fan found this discussion (the question, answer and comments) interesting and useful. Thanks everyone!
Picture is worth a thousand words, etc.
Here are the OESD flops for 76:
98x 85x 54x T84 953
Here are the OESD flops for 74:
65x
Bah, add 532. You can also add 986 … although you are only using 1 of your cards. Both boards look a lot scarier too though.
T86 is the more important one to add. But yeah, point well made.