It’s early in a $1500 WSOP event, and we’re playing 10-handed. Hero has been one of the more active players at the table but hasn’t done anything especially crazy or noteworthy. Villain is a middle-aged white woman, pretty clearly an amateur and seems a little scared/concerned about doing well in the tournament. She’s made a few “suspicious” folds where it seemed like she thought she was probably good but just wasn’t comfortable calling a big bet. Basically it seems like she’s been giving people credit whenever they bet or raise and is mostly playing the strength of her own hand.
Blinds are 25/50, Villain has 3500, Hero covers. Hero limps 5c 5s, Villain raises to 200 in early middle position, the button calls, and Hero calls.
Flop Qh 9h 5d (675 in pot). Hero checks, Villain bets 250, the next player folds, Hero?
What’s your value target? What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll be back with results hopefully on Friday.
Pretty sure with this type of villain, draws are unlikely to be part of her range. I see her range as sets, AA, KK or AQ. Would she ever open with 99 or just limp behind you? If she’s likely not opening with hands like 77-99, then her range narrows even more.
The only hand that may not continue if you raise her flop bet is AQ. I think there’s more value from raising than there is calling. If you raise I think she flats AA and KK and you may be able to get one more street of value from her. If she raises, then you have to decide if QQ makes sense. I’m also not sure if she’s the type of person who bets big when draws are out there. Maybe she’d bet closer to pot size with a hand like QQ, just to end the hand.
In the end, I raise. I think there’s a better chance of her checking back the turn if you call the flop bet than betting again. This way, you can get three streets of value on two streets, since unless she has exactly QQ, I presume she’ll make another big river fold.
I’m very happy you picked a spot like this to discuss. Against this type of opponent, I’m always conflicted as to the best way to extract value. Having a set on a flush draw board with one broadway card is a very complex situation. If we check-raise the flop is she continuing without Qx+? Seems unlikely based on our observations. She’s not the type to bluff catch us with a small/mid pocket pair thinking we are aggressively playing a flush draw. Since our read is that she’s been giving people credit whenever they raise our value target for check raising is: Qx, KK/AA. Therefore, I’m not sure its the best play here.
Is she the type to raise with QJ/KJ/QT/KT type hands? Seems unlikely for an “amateur/scared/concerned” opponent to be opening those hands in mid position especially after an early position limp.
Next, looking at her bet sizing, its 250 into 675 which is only about a third of the pot. IMO these types of players, when playing AA/KK or AQ here would bet larger to “protect their hand” and “charge the draws”. Even if they aren’t even thinking to that extent and are merely concerned with their own hand regardless of board texture, this is not a bet size that screams AA or KK or AQ to me. Rather, it looks like a continuation bet with AK/AJ or JJ/TT/88 type hands.
To me, the best course of action is to call her flop bet because her bet sizing and willingness to fold to betting/raising makes it unlikely for us to win a big pot on the flop if we check raise. For this to happen she has to have KQ/AQ/KK/AA. Instead, in this spot against this opponent I would call and reassess on the turn card.
Any broadway card I’m planning on check raising for value against AK/AJ/KQ/KJ/AQ. If its a J or T and she bet-3bets its a fold vs this player IMO. If a diamond comes I would also considering check raising for value against those same hands that have now picked up a four flush.
Any small card I actually like leading smallish hoping to confuse her and get a call from her one pair hands. Once we call on flop and a ‘safe’ card peels turn she may be skittish enough that shes checking back mid pocket pairs on the turn to see free river so I would bet around 1/4-1/3 pot to pick up that street of value too. She checks back a lot of the time if checked to on river so I would attempt to squeeze some more chips out of her here on a small turn card and bet any river as well.
Based on your description of the villain, and her bet size, I think it is unlikely that she has AA-QQ. With AA or KK or AKhh I would expect a bigger bet to protect against flush draws(or get value in the case of AKhh). 99/QQ are unlikely, and if she had that,maybe her bet would be bigger as well. I would also put AQ in that range, and maybe KQ as well (again as hands we can hope she has, but are unlikely given the bet size). I don’t think she raises QJ, Q10 or Q9 in her position. That leaves hands like AK, AJ maybe A10, as well as pairs maybe 88,1010 or JJ. Of those hands, given her folds, we can most hope to extract value (value target?) from AA, KK, AQ, KQ, and maybe JJ, 1010 or AK.
Given that there are few combinations of hands that she could have that are squarely in her range given both your image of her prior to the hand, and her bet size after the flop, I think a call here is appropriate. A check-raise will likely scare her off. If you do raise her bet, AND she calls, and a heart comes on the turn, it is unlikely she will pay you.
This is one of those situations where she is unlikely to really have enough to pay you off handsomely
Villain, playing tight and straightforwardly, raised 4x the BB in early middle position. That pretty much lets us put her on AA/KK/QQ and *maybe* AKs, right? I mean, I can’t imagine a tight player, in a tournament, ever raising AQo or even 99 in this spot.
So if that’s the case, AA/KK/QQ are betting for value and AK is c-betting on the flop. (In addition to the number of combinations, this is another pretty strong indication that you’re not looking at QQ; a tight, by-the-book player is going to check top trips here every time even with the draw on the board.)
With that set of possibilities, check-raising gets you a fold from AK and maybe even a fold from KK if Villain is truly tight/scared. AA *maybe* calls if you’ve sized the bet small enough. QQ, of course, shoves back at you.
On the other hand, if you just call — and no heart falls on the turn — then AA and maybe even KK probably leads out with another bet, and even AK may take another stab at the pot.
So it seems to me that the best way to extract value here is to call.
I’m not sure “scared overall” means that she is giving up AA/KK easily. Isn’t this the kind of situation where she might consider three-betting an active player, especially if Hero has an internetty vibe, because she is trying to play the hand in the easiest way possible, with a decent amount of scary turn cards possible? Even in a tournament?
IMO middle-aged, earnest amateur players are worried about looking dumb/”being outplayed” than straight tournament-life scared, and they can justify overplaying a big pair more easily than looking dumb on a thin calldown (previous hands). I would play it fast and not worry about elaborate play so we get two bets rather than one bet out of exactly AK. She’ll call with AQ.
You didn’t say how often she is raising and limping, but I would put her range pre-flop at 99+, AJ+, KQ (maybe only suited for AJ and KQ and half the combos of 99, limping the other half). Absent a tell on a later street, you’re going to lose a big pot to QQ or 99, so I think we should be focused on getting value from AA, KK, AQ, and KQ. I think the choices are between calling and raising to about 850 to 900 (which leaves a pot size bet for the turn and gives her room to think she can make you fold to a re-raise shove on the flop). I think the questions to answer are a) how likely is she to put you on a heart flush draw / combo draw for either of these actions, b) how likely is she to finally say enough is enough and make a stand against you with these hands. For a) I think she is likely to put you on the draw if you call, so there are a lot of cards that can freeze the action for you (almost any card but a A, 3 or a 2 non-heart if she’s really seeing ghosts under the bed) and she’s in position so the likely result of any of those cards is check-check or bet-fold on the turn. If you raise, she’s going to think you have one of 3 hands (draw/combo draw, bluff, or set), so she’s more likely to get it in with you, hoping it’s not the hand you have, so that favors raising. I think the 2 hearts & straight draws actually help you here (if she has AA or KK) because with a much dryer board she’s going to be less likely to believe you are bluffing (or to put it another way, will be much more scared of the check-raise). I don’t know how she sized her bets before, but the 250 indicates to me that her hand skews more towards AQ or KQ that thinks 250 is the value of her hand, so that would favor calling, but I could easily see her making this sized bet with half or more of her combos of AA/KK. I think its close, but I favor raising. I think she is most likely to fold AQ or KQ but she will get it in with AA, KK, QQ, and 99, and there are much more combos off AA & KK than QQ and 99 (when considering she would tend to bet larger with those hands).
I really think I’d prefer a lead on the flop. You’re much more likely to get 3 streets of value if you lead than check raising this flop, especially if villain is the scared type. You’ll also have more control over sizing on the turn and river than letting scared villain bet too small or (disaster!) check back the turn or river. You almost certainly can’t c/r turn without getting her to fold worse or jam on you with better sets.
In terms of value target, we’re probably getting one street from less than TP hands whether we check or bet, and I’m willing to fold to a raise if we lead v a scared villain, putting her mostly on better sets and maybe some combo draws. I just think we’re more likely to get more value v TP + overpairs if we lead than do anything else.
I think this is a very clear raise: calling here seems pretty bad to me. I like raising to around 1000. I am aiming to get value from Qx, overpairs and draws.
From hands like AK or weaker we don’t expect to get much value from this villain. We don’t expect her to be barreling air or overcards OTT, and even if she does catch up with say AK, the board will get pretty scary and we won’t get much value anyway.
So, we really only need to make sure we’re getting value form top pair or stronger hands. Check-calling is problematic for multiple reasons. Firstly, with hands like QJ or KQ she might check back the turn (“for pot control”), costing us at least one street of value. Secondly, this board is very wet and will become ugly very often. Thus, we really want to get our value now, when she still thinks we’re often bluffing.
It’s true that she might fold strong hands to our raise sometimes, but sometimes she won’t. If we wait till later streets, we won’t get as many streets of value, and often the board will become scary, further hurting our chance to get value.
Plus, we really are often bluffing: our check-raise range here is *huge*. So it’s comforting to know that we do have at least a few strong hands in there: bottom set is the perfect strong hand to put in our c/r range.
Finally: what about the times she has a bigger set? I think we’re happy stacking off on the flop with this SPR and on a board this wet: villain will have a higher set sometimes, but this shouldn’t bother us too much given that she’d probably be stacking off with overpairs and maybe even draws OTF enough of the time.
Hero’s value target is AA, KK, and AQ. Hero’s hand is worth 3 or more bets if the board texture does not change. Villain has the initiative, so we need to decide if we should take it away. Snce our target has a good one pair hand on a draw heavy board, front loading value should be considered. However, villain may not be a good hand reader. Slowplaying is not ideal here because we have a value target and our hand may lose value if the draws hit. All this suggests we should check raise the flop. It is our best chance at getting 3 bets from this hand and it gives us the initiative. There is a risk villain will shut down as she has in previous hands, but that may happen anyway if draws hit. We can partially address this by overbetting. If we bet large, we may convince villain we are bluffing or that she has to take a stand or get run over the rest of the day. I’d raise the flop to 900.
If villain calls, I would barrell all non-heart turns and rivers, probably at least 75% of pot.
I think previous commentators are assigning her too tight of a range based on your description of her. I would expect 77+, any suited broadway, maybe T9s, and any suited ace could be in her range (although A8s and below she might limp more than raise).
I have a standard line for these situations against these type of opponents. I check raise, and in this particular case I would c/r to about 650, and follow up with a half size turn and river bet (unless there is a 4 card flush or straight river, in which case I would c/f or c/c depending on sizing). I would take care not to endanger more than about 2/3 of her stack because I find people will surprise you with their ability to call down light in these spots. If one of the draws comes in and I get raised I usually fold because I wouldn’t peg her as the type to jam AA on the turn with a nut flush draw, only call.
I basically have 2 different value targets; made hands (over pairs, Qx, and sometimes JJ and TT) and draws (flush draws, JT, AK, and sometimes but less likely KT and AT). If the board runs out dry like running twos they may convince themselves you were fast playing a draw that’s now bluffing and call down with a hand as weak as TT sometimes. If there is a straight card or flush card they may suspect you had the other draw and call down with Qx+ (I’m assuming this is their thought process, all’s I really know is they’ll call a lot). If they hit their draw they’ll let you know with a large re-raise. If they have a draw and miss your not getting any more value after the turn anyway.
I think the key is to not endanger their whole stack. You’ll get value from a lot of their range and lose the least when you’re beat. But like I said this the standard line I’ve fallen into in these spots, and would love to hear if there might be a better way.
I forgot to mention my standard line here if I get re-raised on the flop; I would assume she had AA,KK,QQ or 99. Since there are more combos behind bottom set than ahead I’m happy to get it in.
The player plays straightforwardly.
What is her raising range preflop ?
AA-KK-QQ-JJ-AQo+ AJs+ (I wanted to include KQs+ but not sure)
With which part of this range would she feel comfortable betting here ?
AA-KK-AQ
Can she really fold AA-KK or AQ on a flop raise ? I don’t think so. As many amateurs (I’m counting myself in, even though I got better on this part), she would fall in love with AA-KK and AQ on this board.
The sizing of her bet isn’t really something I’m concerned about. If she is scared and wants to do well, she would not want you out of this premium hand of hers so the sizing doesn’t necessarily means that she’s cbetting with nothing that she would fold.
I don’t think I would get another street of value if a heart falls on the turn or river.. so I would definitely raise here because AA-KK-AQ would call (or even reraise me if she is scared of the FD?).
I won’t do anything fancy, just raising to 750 would be fine enough. It’s not threatening enough for her to fold with TPTK and can trigger a reraise from her part since we are one of the most active player on the table while she feels she has the nuts.
The range given is really tight, perhaps I’m wrong but if she is a scared amateur, I have a hard time seeing a very wider range here ? Perhaps more pockets and in that case, well she would fold unless she’s got 99 and my reasoning is not good !
But I can only see her as a nit.
Donk flop (near psb), donk turn (near psb), all in on river. Plan changes only if there is 4 to a straight or a 4-flush on the board.
dammit first comment was lost. here is a second attempt.
Assumptions we should make in my opinion
1/villain is unlikely to be raising light pre.
2/ villain is unlikely to continue to barrel light
3/ villain is likely sizing unaware,
4/ is likely to instantly pot control when any draws come in
5/ unlikely to fold overpairs easily despite reads and history.
the villains raising range is something like AJ+ 1010+ some villains might be wider than this but a tight scared player is pretty likely to over limp KQ/88/99 imo, and as nate likes to say the sum of the villains will be tighter than average rather than looser, given reads.
I dont take too much out of the sizing because scared amateurs typically dont accurately estimate the size of the pot and this probably looks like a standard bet size to her.
the fact she cbet only serves to weight her range away from air slightly imo. since she is more likely to give up with air than she is too slow play value hands.
I want to raise around pot, I think that the flush draw on the board negates a few of the overcards that AK can connect with, and villain will go in c/c c/f mode even with overpairs if the flush comes in. furthermore marginal hands such as JJ/1010 are unlikely to continue betting on just about any turn card (K/A heart), and will be very difficult to extract value beyond a single bet. when villain has a nut heart draw we still want to be raising for value since we will make correct decisions on future streets and they wont (this is only 1-2 combos).
summary of villains range
QQ+ AQ we stack we get significantlly more money in the pot with 83% equity. (15 combos of overpairs, 12 TPTK)
AKhh we are moderately indifferent between raising (1-1.3combos depending on likelyhood of AJhh raising and betting)
JJ-1010 we lose a potential bet on turn/river but this only happens on non heart/A/K boards. also any J/10 gives both pairs more equity as they turn a set or openended. (12 combos) so we dislike 19/45 turn cards.
AK we require a turned non heart A/K which occurs 4-5/45 turn cards so isnt a significant factor. (16 combos)
approx numbers to follow
so by raising we sacrifice a single bet from JJ/1010 which we get on 60% of turn cards, (1/4 of his range)
we lose 2 bets from AK on 10% of turn cards. (1/4 of his range)
we stack or get significant action from QQ+ AQ for resulting on us stacking on >2/3 of turn cards. (approx 1/2 range)
so unless we believe opponent will bet/fold AQ with reasonably high frequency i think raising is best. especially since opponent is likely to shut down when the flush comes in since that is the obvious draw she will fear. getting money in while the board is safer also causes her to be more emotionally attached to a larger pot and will be less likely to fold AA/KK after b/c flop than simply betting it if the 2h rolls off on the turn. and if they elect to get KK+ in on the flop even better.
in terms of our range i think firstly we arent going to get exploited even if we were only raising 2pair+, but I also feel that v this opponent this will be a spot that we will be semi bluffing a reasonable frequency. ie 56hh, J10o, J10s Axhh KJhh J8hh 87hh 67hh etc (all hands i would understand limping pre, especially at a loose passive table, although i suspect your range is small pair heavier than that.) since this is a spot we can fold out approximately half their range instantly and have reasonable equity when called since they are virtually no draws in range (literally none if we hold the Ah) so including some sets and 2pair seem reasonable to strengthen that range.
I like this post. Good job.