I was playing a particularly nitty $5/$10/$20 game where pretty much everyone except me was quite reluctant to lose whatever they had on the table. Naturally, I’d been leaning on them, especially the player on my right, even harder than usual. I’d also been catching kind of well, so there were a few pots where I actually had the goods but didn’t go to showdown,which probably made me seem even more aggressive than I was.

Villain open limps the CO, I limp behind with As 8h on the Button, SB folds, BB completes, and the straddle checks.

Flop ($80 in pot) Qs 8d 3s. Checks to me, I bet $20, BB calls, straddle folds, CO raises to $80, I call, BB folds. This is a tricky spot because although CO’s line is pretty suspect and I block several of the strongest hands he’s representing, it’s also a kinda odd spot for him to bluff. Then again, the underbet can induce some weird stuff, especially in a player who’s already annoyed. Plus backdoor nut draw!

Turn ($260 in pot) 8s. That’s the best card in the deck for me, unless it isn’t. Villain checks, and so do I.

River ($260 in pot) Ts. Villain bets $175. I raise to $375. He seems to waffle between calling and folding, counts at another $200, then suddenly grabs more chips and makes it $700 to go. I try to talk to him a bit, don’t pick up much but he definitely doesn’t seem uncomfortable. I fold.

There’s a lot going for a fold here, especially when you realize that if this is a bluff, it would probably be the first time in this guy’s life that he ever three-bet bluff the river. Then again, I have a tendency to bring that out in people!

I’m fine with folding the As here. But the As with a hugely significant blocker, getting better than 2.5:1? Against a player who is visibly annoyed with me? Think I shoulda called this one, but it’s closer than it seems when you just look at the hand details.

For what it’s worth, I did consider jamming as well, as 33 is the hand I’m most likely to lose to if I call, but Q8 and even QQ aren’t out of the question for Villain, and frankly I don’t think he was in the mood to fold a full house to me.

The hand took a long time on the river, so when it’s over there was a lot of speculation about what we had. Someone claimed we both had nothing, someone else insisted we both had big hands. I said something along the lines of, “I folded a big hand. Not a lot of people are good enough to bluff there,” but that didn’t get any kind of reaction from Villain. I have to imagine he would have been sorely tempted to show a bluff at that point (he still had his cards), but he also didn’t muck and then insist he was bluffing, which would be a plausible reaction if he weren’t bluffing, so who’s to say?

If I could have my cards back, I’d call. You?

He open limped the CO for $10, I made it $40 with Ah 5h on the Button, the blinds folded, and he called.

The flop came Kh Qh Ts. He checked, I bet $75 (was experimenting with multiple bet sizes last night), and he called.

The turn was the Jh, he checked, and I bet $75 again because I was mostly targeting two-pair or a low-straight. I didn’t think he’d play much Ax this way, and I blocked a lot of flushes.

He tanked for a while, then raised $200. I was planning to 3-bet to $600, but I took my time, and he started giving off some really blatant weak-means-strong tells. He told I didn’t have anything, that I should just let him win a small pot, etc. At some point he asked if I had an Ace or a 9.

All of that made me aim a little higher, so I popped it to $700. He pushed out a stack worth about $1800, I shoved for his last $600 or so, he quickly called, and I tabled my hand even before the river came down because I thought I had the nuts. The river blanked off, and then he tabled the Th 9h. Even after I saw it, it took me a minute to realized I’d lost.

Despite the blatant tells, I don’t regret my play. I think he could behave the same with a lot of flushes, thinking that I just have an Ace.

UTG opens to $40, MP calls, I call with 4c 2c in the BB.

Flop ($125 in pot) 9c 5s 3h. I check, UTG bets $75, MP folds, I raise to $275, UTG makes it $640, I call.

Turn ($1405 in pot) 4h. I bet $800, UTG calls.

River ($3005 in pot) As. I shove for ~$3000, UTG calls with 99.

Pre-flop isn’t exactly standard, but MP was the weakest player at the table (overly loose, sizing tells, etc.), and although UTG seemed like a pretty decent player, I knew that he wasn’t one of the best regs, because even though I don’t play at Maryland Live that often I do know who the best pros there are.

I love my hand on this flop. As deep as we are, I’m more excited to have hit this than to have hit bottom set. The only hands I’d rather hold are top set, 76 with a backdoor, or 64 with a backdoor, in that order. This is a very easy check-raise. If you’re not clear on why, put yourself in UTG’s shoes and imagine how you’d feel about playing for stacks with anything less than 55 (which may not even be in his UTG range).

To be honest, I was skeptical of Villain’s three-bet. I’d actually won another pot recently at the must move table (Villain was already in the main game so wasn’t around to see this) by min-4-bet bluffing against another reg in a very similar spot. I can’t see him doing this with the intention to get stacks in unless he has a set or a big draw, and many players won’t take this line with those hands anyway. Because I had such a good draw, though, I decided to peel and pull the trigger on a later street.

The turn is a great card for my purposes, because it completes the most obvious draw. I can’t definitively exclude 76s from Villain’s range, but I had my doubts as to whether he’d open it pre and whether he’d three-bet the flop. I think he should do both, but even many pretty good mid-stakes live pros are too nitty about that sort of thing.

My biggest mistake here is the sizing. I planned to shove any river that didn’t pair the board (maybe not hearts either, just because he might not expect me to jam non-flushes for value although I would), and consequently I should have set up sizing so that I was betting more similar percentages of the pot on both streets. I think $1000 into $1400 on the turn and then $2800 into $3400 on the river would have worked out better.

Frankly, I think his river call is pretty bad. Most of my semi-bluffs have gotten there, and on this run-out I’m not shoving a lower set for value. This is what happens when you just think about “bluffs” generically rather than considering which exact hands your opponent would bluff with.

I was initially excited not only to win the pot but also to have a player sitting two seats to my right who still had me covered! As tempting as the prospect of winning a $20K pot was, he proved pretty nitty and it was getting late, so after an hour of unsuccessfully trying to provoke a confrontation with him, I cashed out and called it a night.

PokerStars – $2 NL (6 max) ZOOM – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $345.74
SB: $314.91
Hero (BB): $258.40
UTG: $269.90
MP: $136.94
CO: $94.00

SB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has Qs Ad

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $5.56, fold, Hero raises to $18.00, BTN calls $12.44

Flop: ($37.00, 2 players) 3h 5d 7h
Hero bets $18.00, BTN calls $18.00

Turn: ($73.00, 2 players) 9d
Hero checks, BTN bets $23.86, Hero raises to $88.00, BTN calls $64.14

River: ($249.00, 2 players) Kh
Hero bets $134.40 and is all-in, fold

Hero wins $246.20

I was planning to check-raise the turn even if he’d made a larger bet, though the small bet was encouraging. My plan was to run him off of weak made hands and also extract some value from draws. If he just calls the turn, then I think my hand is actually good enough to check-call a blank river. That’s not to say that I think he’s always on a draw, just that he’d usually check behind a made hand that isn’t good enough to shove over my turn check-raise.

This river, though completing some of his draws, also gives me something to represent. My hand is no longer good enough to check-call, so checking gives him a green light to shove any busted draws he does have. In other words, there’s actually value in shoving into those hands. I also think I can get him off of a lot of one-pair hands, so really I lose only to his rivered flushes. He probably has plenty in his range, but given that I’m shoving barely half-pot, I don’t have to succeed all that often. It’s a spot where the all-in bet probably generated an amount of fold equity disproportionate to its size.

PokerStars – $2 NL (6 max) ZOOM – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $130.84
SB: $77.00
BB: $113.56
UTG: $192.00
MP: $113.10
Hero (CO): $200.00

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has Kc Ah

UTG raises to $4.00, fold, Hero raises to $12.00, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $8.00

Flop: ($27.00, 2 players) 2s 2d Ad
UTG checks, Hero bets $18.00, UTG calls $18.00

Turn: ($63.00, 2 players) Qh
UTG bets $30.00, fold

UTG wins $60.20

A Q is surely one of the worst cards in the deck for me. Virtually all of Villain’s range that I can beat should be hoping I check behind the turn, and indeed I often will. So for Villain to take the betting lead away to ensure that a bet goes in on this turn is not a good thing. When I’m an autopilot mode, it’s easy for me to decide to peel one and see what happens on the river, but that’s a 7BB mistake. Paying enough attention to act consistently on this somewhat small and subtle stuff can easily be the different between winning and losing, and it ought to be standard.

Here’s a fun hand I played against one of the better players:

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold’em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($246.88)
SB ($67.46)
BB ($584.54)
UTG ($263.43)
UTG+1 ($202)
MP1 ($158)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($316.44)
CO ($200)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, K
6 folds, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9) J, A, Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($19) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB raises to $36, Hero raises to $75, 1 fold

Total pot: $91 | Rake: $2.80

Results:
Hero didn’t show 9, K.
Outcome: Hero won $88.20

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($400)
Hero (UTG) ($622.50)
MP ($406)
Button ($408.80)
SB ($546.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, Q
Hero bets $14, 3 folds, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $30

Flop: ($90) J, J, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33, BB calls $33

Turn: ($156) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $55, 1 fold

Total pot: $156 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show K, Q.
Outcome: Hero won $154

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($618)
UTG ($884.80)
Hero (MP) ($1112)
CO ($673.35)
Button ($935.05)
SB ($603)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A♠, Q♣
1 fold, Hero bets $21, 1 fold, Button calls $21, 2 folds

Flop: ($51) 8♥, 8♦, 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $36.30, Button calls $36.30

Turn: ($123.60) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $108, Hero calls $108

River: ($339.60) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $389, Hero calls $389

Total pot: $1117.60 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had J♥, 9♥ (two pair, eights and sixes).
Hero had A♠, Q♣ (two pair, eights and sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $1114.60

BB ($819.50)
Hero (SB) ($1000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, J
Hero bets $9.60, BB calls $5.60

Flop: ($20.80) 2, 5, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($20.80) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($20.80) A (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Total pot: $44.80 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 6, J (one pair, fives).
BB had 8, 10 (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $44.30

With my line, it looks a lot like I have either A-high trying to showdown cheaply or air that I declined to bluff. In either case, I’m likely to bet the river. Thus, it doesn’t really make that much sense for Villain to bet if he paired the Ace, and it makes even less sense for him to try to value bet a K. There’s also not much point in bluffing if he has Q-high, so my Jack starts looking pretty good.

Of course this all falls apart if Villain realizes how FOS his river bet will look and expects me to call with J-high

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t3000)
MP2 (t2970)
MP3 (t2600)
CO (t2350)
Hero (Button) (t3000)
SB (t3440)
BB (t3000)
UTG (t3700)
UTG+1 (t2940)

Hero’s M: 100.00

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J

5 folds, CO bets t40, Hero raises to t120, 1 fold, BB raises to t380, 1 fold, Hero calls t260

Flop: (t810) A, 8, Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t810) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t444, BB calls t444

River: (t1698) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1273, 1 fold

Total pot: t1698

Results:
Hero didn’t show J, J (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t1698

Want to learn to identify and take advantage of spots like this? Then sign up for the Big Bluffs seminar, to be held Tuesday November 22nd 6-8 PM Eastern.

Edit: Changed seminar date.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($555)
Button ($184.30)
Hero (SB) ($498.40)
BB ($415)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, J
1 fold, Button bets $10, Hero raises to $28, 1 fold, Button calls $18

Flop: ($60) 3, K, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $20, Hero raises to $48, Button raises to $156.30 (All-In), Hero calls $108.30

Turn: ($372.60) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($372.60) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $372.60 | Rake: $2

Results:
Button had J, A (high card, Ace).
Hero had Q, J (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $370.60

These folks generally have some bad habits to break, nittiness chief among them. The thing is that there is so much low-hanging fruit in small-stakes live games that many players can win just by waiting for big hands and then stacking people who can’t fold. I have to make them see the difference between a mediocre winner who waits for golden opportunities and a great player who creates profitable opportunities.

This is important in bigger games where there are fewer fish. When there is someone spewing money, the whole table is drooling over him, and you if you wait for a perfect spot, he’ll probably go broke to someone else before you get your chance.

Although it’s played online, this is a good example of picking off a spewing maniac with a less-than-premium hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($400)
BB ($439.20)
UTG ($475.50)
MP ($678.20)
CO ($317)
Hero (Button) ($404)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
1 fold, MP bets $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30) A, 10, 10 (2 players)
MP bets $16, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($62) 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $22, MP raises to $100, Hero calls $78

River: ($262) 6 (2 players)
MP bets $550.20 (All-In), Hero calls $276 (All-In)

Total pot: $814 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q, K (one pair, tens).
MP had 4, 8 (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $811

The nitty way to play this would be to check the turn and then call or check back the river, but that probably wins you well under $100.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($1015)
BB ($1495)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, 7
Hero bets $20, BB calls $10

Flop: ($40) 8, 5, 5 (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero raises to $55, BB raises to $110, Hero calls $55

Turn: ($260) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $99, BB calls $99

River: ($458) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $333, BB calls $333

Total pot: $1124 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 6, 7 (two pair, eights and fives).
BB had J, Q (two pair, eights and fives).
Outcome: BB won $1123.50

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $1.00 BB (2 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($100.50)
BB ($51)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q
Hero bets $2, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4) 5, 10, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.85, BB calls $1.85

River: ($7.70) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.65, BB raises to $10, Hero raises to $30.05, 1 fold

Total pot: $27.70 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn’t show K, Q (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $27.20

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP ($940)
Button ($670.05)
SB ($249)
Hero ($1197.95)
UTG ($609)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7d, Ad.
2 folds, Button raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, Button calls $36.

Flop: ($99) Ks, 5h, Ac (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($99) 7c (2 players)
Hero bets $66, Button raises to $180, Hero calls $114.

River: ($459) 3d (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $180, Hero calls $180.

Final Pot: $819

Results in white below:
Hero has 7d Ad (two pair, aces and sevens).
Button has 9c 8h (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $819.

It’s also important to note here that I can’t really get action from worse hands by three-betting this turn. I expect to have the best hand very often, but I don’t think that even 75 will continue if I 3-bet. This means that bluff-catching has much more merit than “protecting” against the many draws Villain is likely playing this way.

His reads here were that the BTN was a weak regular and the BB was on the loose-passive side (30/4 or so pre-flop):

No-Limit Hold’em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB ($60.80)
UTG ($119.40)
MP ($125.70)
Hero ($109.70)
Button ($103.65)
SB ($38.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kc, Td.
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, Button calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($9.50) Jh, 2h, 4d (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, Button calls $6, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($27.50) 6c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($27.50) 5h (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $55, Button folds, BB calls $51.80 (All-In).

Final Pot: $134.30

Results in white below:
BB has Qc Jd (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Kc Td (high card, king).
Outcome: BB wins $131.10. Hero wins $3.20.

I like this as an overbet spot because both players are likely to have a pair but neither is likely to have a flush. Even before seeing results, I told him that of the two, he ought to be a lot more worried about getting called by the BB than by the BTN. Not only is BB’s relative position better but he is also less more likely to do something spazzy like check a flush or call with toppest pair.

My only advice for playing the hand differently, and what I think makes the hand interesting, is that I think Hero should have shoved for ~$100, enough to put BTN all-in, rather than betting half that, which was half of BTN’s stack but enough to put BB all-in. What’s cool about this is that, assuming I’m right that BTN calls basically never, Hero isn’t really risking twice as much even though he’s betting twice as much. The real threat of a call comes from BB, who can only win $51.80.

It will look to BB, however, as though Hero is risking $100. Presumably BB is not a good hand reader and won’t realize how rarely BTN can call this. Thus, Hero gets credit for making a $100 bet even though his true risk is closer to half that.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1411.25)
CO ($2202)
Button ($1577)
SB ($1606)
BB ($1101.25)
UTG ($1112)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8d, 8h.
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, Button raises to $120, 2 folds, Hero calls $85.

Flop: ($255) 7h, 3h, Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $160, Hero calls $160.

Turn: ($575) Ts (2 players)

Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($575) 3d (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $575

Results in white below:
Hero has 8d 8h (two pair, eights and threes).
Button has 9c 8c (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $575.

The only reason not to barrel a draw this good is fear of getting blown off of it or that I just won’t fold very often. The former shouldn’t be a big concern, as I’m unlikely to raise many hands worse than a flush. Sets are potentially good check-raising hands for me, but the pre-flop action makes them unlikely. As for whether I’ll fold, he can’t know for sure, so he needs to have a range for putting pressure on hands like the one I have. He shouldn’t be 3-betting a lot of Kxo or Qxo, so he won’t often have a big flush draw. That makes an open-ender, even without a heart, one of his highest-equity bluffing hands and a mandatory bet.

Villain and I were starting a game. He’s pretty solid and not someone I’d ordinarily go out of my way to play heads up, especially not at 2/4 where there’s easier competition available.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($402)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qd, Kd.
Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $32.

Flop: ($88) 5s, 2h, Jd (2 players)
BB bets $52, Hero calls $52.

Turn: ($192) Td (2 players)
BB bets $162, Hero raises to $306, BB folds.

Final Pot: $660
Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $660.

The key to floating successfully against a good player is having a lot of turn cards that improve your hand (or that you’ll be comfortable continuing on, anyway). I happen to get a particularly good one, but here that could be any A, K, Q, T, 9, or diamond.

I specify “against a good player”, because it’s much easier against someone who will just bet the flop and then give up if he has nothing. In those cases it doesn’t matter terribly much what you have, but against a good player who will fire second barrels with a good frequency, you need to have a hand that plays well on a lot of turns.

On a spade river, two pair is actually one of the worst hands I’ll ever have. There’s a chance I’ll check it down and win against 43, but Villain will probably bet his bluffs, and I can’t call. Shoving enables me to win the pot against his bluffs and also get him off of the sets, the AQ, and low flushes. I think I rep a big spade very credibly:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($451.55)
Hero ($400)
BB ($400)
UTG ($489.80)
UTG+1 ($716)
MP1 ($424.80)
MP2 ($400)
MP3 ($503.55)
CO ($340.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ac, 4d.
7 folds, Hero raises to $16, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($32) 4s, As, 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BB calls $24.

Turn: ($80) Qh (2 players)
Hero bets $58, BB raises to $138, Hero calls $80.

River: ($356) Ks (2 players)
Hero bets $222 (All-In), BB folds.

Final Pot: $578

Results in white below:
Hero has Ac 4d (two pair, aces and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $578.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($148)
SB ($667.95)
BB ($479)
Hero ($429)
UTG+1 ($354.45)
MP1 ($412.70)
MP2 ($564)
CO ($431.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ks, As.
Hero raises to $16, 3 folds, CO calls $16, 3 folds.

Flop: ($38) 6s, Td, 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $28, CO calls $28.

Turn: ($94) 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $66, CO raises to $156, Hero raises to $385, CO folds.

Final Pot: $635

Results in white below:

No showdown. Hero wins $635.

The fact that I am barrelling As Ks both makes it harder for my opponent to fold pocket pairs when I have an overpair and harder for him to try to bluff me off of an overpair, since even if I will fold AA, I won’t find a big draw like this.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($252)
SB ($1228.25)
BB ($1014.80)
UTG ($741)
MP1 ($398.35)
Hero ($780)
CO ($831.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7c, 7s.
UTG raises to $18, MP1 calls $18, Hero calls $18, 1 fold, Button calls $18, SB calls $15, 1 fold.

Flop: ($96) 8d, 5h, 9h (5 players)

SB checks, UTG bets $54, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $137, Button folds, SB folds, UTG folds.

Final Pot: $287

Results in white below:

No showdown. Hero wins $287.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($672)
UTG+1 ($642)
MP1 ($615)
MP2 ($649.05)
Hero ($600)
CO ($989.85)
Button ($1329.30)
SB ($267.90)
BB ($631.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4d, 4h.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $18, 1 fold, MP2 calls $18, Hero calls $18, 3 folds, BB raises to $60, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $42, Hero calls $42.

Flop: ($201) Td, 5h, 7s (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($201) 5d (3 players)
BB bets $66, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $169, BB calls $103.

River: ($539) 7d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $371 (All-In), BB folds.

Final Pot: $910

Results in white below:
Hero has 4d 4h (two pair, sevens and fives).
Outcome: Hero wins $910.

Tomorrow, I’ll show you an example of how to combat bluffs like these.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1000)
SB ($991.70)
BB ($452.75)
UTG ($1728.50)
UTG+1 ($1187)
MP1 ($1384)
MP2 ($2107.50)
MP3 ($1040)
CO ($1110)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9d, 9s.
4 folds, MP3 raises to $25, CO calls $25, Hero calls $25, 2 folds.

Flop: ($90) 9h, 4s, 2h (3 players)
MP3 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($90) Th (3 players)
MP3 bets $65.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $222, MP3 raises to $508.75, Hero raises to $975, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: $1573.75

It’s also important to note how unlikely a second-best hand is on the flop. This is a great spot to stab at the pot as a bluff or for protection with a vulnerable pair (which I may end up turning into a bluff if called), precisely because it’s unlikely either opponent can call three big bets.

Although there are some draws, the low straight is unlikely, and flushes are discounted since neither player bet. The pre-flop raiser in particular can be expected to continuation bet a flush draw almost always, so when he bets the turn I think it’s far more likely he turned a flush draw than a flush. Even when he reps it hard, I don’t give him credit, and sure enough he seems like he didn’t even have the draw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($518.95)
MP ($500)
Button ($538.90)
SB ($211.55)
Hero ($1162.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7s, 7d.
2 folds, Button raises to $6, SB calls $5, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($18.80) Qh, 3d, Qd (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14.25, Button calls $14.25, SB folds.

Turn: ($47.30) 7c (2 players)
Hero bets $72.85, Button calls $72.85.

River: ($193) 9c (2 players)
Hero bets $333, Button calls $333.

Final Pot: $859
Results in white below:
Hero has 7s 7d (full house, sevens full of queens).
Button has Td Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $859.

Hero ($1078.40)
BB ($2126.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7s, 9c.
Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($36) 2c, 2d, 6h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($36) 7h (2 players)
BB bets $24, Hero raises to $80.6, BB raises to $185, Hero calls $104.40.

River: ($406) 4s (2 players)
BB bets $305, Hero calls $305.

Final Pot: $1016
Results in white below:
BB has Qd Js (one pair, twos).
Hero has 7s 9c (two pair, sevens and twos).
Outcome: Hero wins $1016.

There was a bit of history here, in that Villain had seen me check back the flop and then raise with a turned draw, and he was generally firing quite often when I didn’t continuation bet. Generally the hands I’d shown down after checking the flop were what you’d expect: medium-strength stuff like middle pair that I was playing for pot control/bluff catching. The problem with just calling with this hand is that it’s very vulnerable and at this point in the match, Villain is going to put me on essentially what I have. He can value bet virtually every hand better than mine and also bluff sometimes, generally making the river neutral-EV at best for me if I just call turn. Raising, however, protects my hand is is more likely to be misinterpreted by Villain.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $2 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($211.70)
BB ($1021.55)
Hero ($397)
Button ($200)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with As, 7s.
Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($13) 6h, 5h, 7d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9.

Turn: ($31) Ts (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB calls $24.

River: ($79) Qd (2 players)
BB bets $92, Hero calls $92.

Final Pot: $263

Results in white below:

BB has Kd 4c (high card, king).

Hero has As 7s (one pair, sevens).

Outcome: Hero wins $263.

Hero ($1000)
BB ($3855.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8s, Ts.
Hero raises to $30, BB calls $20.

Flop: ($60) 8c, 5d, Qd (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44.6, BB calls $44.60.

Turn: ($149.20) 8h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $96.5, BB raises to $230, Hero calls $133.50.

River: ($609.20) Ah (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $221.5, BB calls $221.50.

Final Pot: $1052.20

Results in white below:
BB has Kd 9d (one pair, eights).
Hero has 8s Ts (three of a kind, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $1052.20.

I put Villain on a draw but flatted the turn expecting that he would bluff missed rivers. Clearly I was wrong about that part, but I’m pretty happy that I got him to “snap me off” with K-high.

His river checking range consists of draws/bluffs that are giving up and huge hands that are never folding no matter how much I bet. Most of the latter actually beat my hand, though they are very much in the minority.

I think my range also looks pretty drawy. The thing is, given how polarized Villain is, it doesn’t make sense for me to shove if I am trying to bluff (well, unless I think he’s going to hero call with K-high, but I don’t think he’d think I’d think that). So, the underbet is the most credible way to rep a bluff. He can either try to check-raise bluff me or look me up light.

Honestly, although he lost, I think his call is pretty good. I quit him not long after.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1153.70)
Button ($752.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Th, Jh.
Button raises to $12, Hero raises to $42, Button calls $30.

Flop: ($84) Qc, 7d, 9h (2 players)
Hero bets $68.6, Button calls $68.60.

Turn: ($221.20) 2h (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($221.20) Kh (2 players)
Hero bets $165.5, Button raises to $641.5, Hero calls $476.

Final Pot: $1504.20

Results in white below:
Hero has Th Jh (flush, king high).
Button has 3h 7h (flush, king high).
Outcome: Hero wins $1504.20.

Obviously I was looking to check-raise-shove the turn, and I think Villain probably realized that when the hand went to showdown. About 10 minutes later, this hand came up, and I thought that given that last hand he would probably bet-call his J’s and maybe even T’s on the turn, so I again went for a check-raise:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1922.40)
Button ($675)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kh, Kc.
Button raises to $12, Hero raises to $42, Button calls $30.

Flop: ($84) 4d, Js, Ts (2 players)
Hero bets $68.6, Button calls $68.60.

Turn: ($221.20) 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

It’s extremely unlikely that Villain checks a hand better than KK on the turn or that the 8 improves him to one, so I think I have functionally the nuts. I also think Villain will realize his hand is face-up as one weak pair. Hopefully he’ll still be willing to put me on a big draw that whiffed a turn check-shove…

River: ($221.20) 8h (2 players)
Hero bets $1811.8 (All-In), Button calls $564.40 (All-In).

Final Pot: $2597.40

Results in white below:

Hero has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).

Button has 4c Qc (one pair, fours).

Outcome: Hero wins $2597.40.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($858.20)
MP ($348.85)
CO ($465.60)
Button ($200)
SB ($534.95)
Hero ($463.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5c, Kc.
4 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($13.60) 8c, 7d, 2d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.25, SB raises to $12.5, Hero calls $6.25.

Turn: ($38.60) 4h (2 players)
SB bets $16, Hero raises to $64, SB folds.

Final Pot: $118.60

Results in white below:

No showdown. Hero wins $118.60.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1000)
Button ($573.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jh, 4d.
Button calls $5, Hero checks.

Flop: ($20) 4c, Kh, 4h (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $20, Hero calls $20.

Turn: ($60) 5d (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $543.55 (All-In), Hero calls $543.55.

River: ($1147.10) 8d (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1147.10

Results in white below:

Hero has Jh 4d (three of a kind, fours).

Button has 9s Qd (one pair, fours).

Outcome: Hero wins $1147.10.

Hero ($3484)
BB ($455.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7s, Kh.
Hero raises to $20, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($40) 2d, 3d, Kd (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($100) Qh (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80.

River: ($260) Qc (2 players)
BB bets $325.25 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $585.25

Results in white below:

BB doesn’t show.

Outcome: BB wins $585.25.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($3373.50)
BB ($564.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jh, 3d.
Hero raises to $20, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($40) 8s, Jc, 6s (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($100) Td (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80.

River: ($260) As (2 players)
BB bets $220, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $480

Results in white below:

BB doesn’t show.

Outcome: BB wins $480.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($3273)
BB ($664.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3d, As.
Hero raises to $20, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($40) 7s, 6s, 8h (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($100) Ah (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero calls $80.

River: ($260) Ad (2 players)
BB bets $220, Hero calls $220.

Final Pot: $700

Results in white below:

BB has 9c Th (straight, ten high).

Hero has 3d As (three of a kind, aces).

Outcome: BB wins $700.

Of the three hands, this is the spot where it is by far the hardest for Villain to represent a legitimate hand. Only a really big hand like a flopped straight or set or a really unlikely hand like rivered trips could go three barrels for value here. Any two pair he flopped is now counterfeited. Plus it’s pretty obvious I have at least a pair, and every draw missed. In theory, he ought to bluff in “obviously” bad spots so that I can’t make hero folds like this. In practice, after I’ve folded twice in similar spots very recently, I think it’s unlikely he bluffs here. And despite having trips, I don’t beat anything he’s value betting. I told myself I’d fold if he shoved, but when he didn’t shove, I tilt-called him. Pwned.

It’s cool, though. A few hands later, I got it in with middle pair and a flush draw on the turn against his top pair and spiked to bust him for the third and final time.

It is, however, a skill I’d like to have. I generally tell my students that you need to know their goals in poker before you can decide their playing style. If you are planning on being in the game for a long time to come, then you should focus on getting better rather than maximizing your current hourly rate. That generally means playing fewer tables and thinking through each hand that you play very thoroughly. When you are trying to maximize your short-term income, then it makes sense to focus on playing as many tables as possible, even if you are playing slightly less well and not actively improving.

I’m not in the short-term camp myself, but at the same time I need to pick up the pace at which I’m earning VPP’s if I’m going to take full advantage of my PokerStars Team Online deal. I’ve also decided that, since most my individual coaching students play 100NL or 200NL, it wouldn’t hurt me to get some more experience in those games. So, last night, I sat down at 13 6-handed tables of 1/2 NLHE, and played for 3 hours with no breaks. I know some people play considerably more than, but for me that’s a lot.

Couple observations from that first experience:

1. It takes practice and some warming-up. This is part of why I was reluctant to take breaks. For the first half hour so I was just frantic, barely thinking about what I was doing, timing out, etc. By the time I hit the two-hour mark, I felt like I had it under control, though I wasn’t eager to add more tables, either. I can see myself getting better over time, though.

2. It’s tiring. I was really exhausted at the end of the session, much more so than I usually am after playing for three hours.

3. It feels like work. I go back and forth in terms of how much poker feels like working vs. playing a game, but this felt almost entirely like work. I was checking the clock every 2-3 minutes as I neared the 3-hour mark.

4. You feel every table. When a game broke and I was temporarily playing just 12 tables, there was a noticeable difference in how harried I felt and how much time I could allot to each table.

5. Screen size matters. I’m probably a fish for tiling my tables instead of cascading, but I definitely lost some time squinting at small tables to make out stack or bet sizes. I’ll have to try cascading.

6. Table Ninja is huge. I couldn’t have done this without my hotkeys.

7. My play suffers noticeably. I’m definitely not ready to try this at 2/4. In particular, I was relying overly much on the bet sizes I have programmed into my Table Ninja rather than sizing them situationally.

8. There’s a strong incentive to play TAG, though not necessarily ABC. I found myself folding a lot of hands that would have been marginal opens just because I was too busy on other tables and didn’t want to deal with them. I was also far more likely to 3-bet/fold vs. a raise than flat call, since I wasn’t confident that I’d have the attention to invest in playing post-flop without the initiative. I still made moves, but they were more often bluff-raising and barreling rather than floating or checking to represent something tricky.

My goal, which I may or may not follow through on depending on how much I improve in future sessions, is to play 50K hands of 1/2 NLHE 6-max this month. That’s a lot for me, especially since it’s not the only thing I intend to play, but it’s very feasible. And besides, it’s about time I got my grind on.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($799.50)
Button ($648.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jc, Jh.
Button raises to $8, Hero raises to $32, Button calls $24.

Flop: ($64) Qh, 6h, 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($64) 5s (2 players)
Hero bets $47.6, Button calls $47.60.

River: ($159.20) 6s (2 players)
Hero bets $119, Button calls $119.

Final Pot: $397.20
Results in white below:
Hero has Jc Jh (two pair, jacks and sixes).
Button has 7h 7s (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins $397.20.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($696)
BB ($645)
UTG ($785.70)
UTG+1 ($493)
MP1 ($368.50)
MP2 ($201)
CO ($109.30)
Hero ($747)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Kc, Kd.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $18, 3 folds, Hero raises to $50, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $32.

Flop: ($109) 5c, Jh, 4d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($109) Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $66, UTG+1 calls $66.

River: ($241) Qs (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $111, UTG+1 raises to $270, Hero raises to $631, UTG+1 calls $107 (All-In).

Final Pot: $1249
Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Qh Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Kc Kd (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $1249.

In this case, the hands that can call an overbet, namely QQ and JJ, will in all likelihood check-raise the river anyway. Better to make a smaller bet that can be called by hands like AA, AK, or KQ, since you probably won’t miss out on value from lower sets anyway.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($495.05)
Hero ($2083.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kc, Qh.
Button raises to $8, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($16) Ks, 3s, 9s (2 players)
Hero bets $16, Button calls $16.

Turn: ($48) 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $44, Button calls $44.

River: ($136) 4s (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $72, Hero raises to $144, Button folds.

Final Pot: $352

Results in white below:

Hero has Kc Qh (one pair, kings).

Outcome: Hero wins $352.

I do think, by the way, that this is a good spot for me to check the nuts on the river. Just about any hand that can call a bet will bet for value if checked to, plus Villain may occasionally bluff with a hand that would have folded to a bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB ($142)
UTG ($268)
MP ($173.50)
CO ($463.25)
Button ($406)
Hero ($402)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ad, As.
1 fold, MP calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, MP calls $16.

Flop: ($44) Qh, Th, 5s (2 players)
Hero bets $32, MP calls $32.

Turn: ($108) Qc (2 players)
Hero bets $38, MP calls $38.

River: ($184) 9h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $83.5 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $267.50

Results in white below:

MP doesn’t show.

Outcome: MP wins $267.50.

Ordinarily I’m inclined to believe an overbet from a random, especially when it’s really big and over two streets. I just couldn’t put him on anything, though.

He raised so much pre-flop that I couldn’t see him open limping a pocket pair, so that ruled out sets. All the draws missed, and it didn’t seem right that he’d overbet two pair so drastically, though I figured if I were to lose that was the most likely candidate.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($751.20)
SB ($419)
Hero ($422)
UTG ($424)
MP ($546.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6c, 9c.
2 folds, Button calls $4, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($10) 6d, Qc, 3d (2 players)
Hero bets $7.1, Button calls $7.10.

Turn: ($24.20) 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $32, Hero calls $32.

River: ($88.20) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $164, Hero calls $164.

Final Pot: $416.20

Results in white below:
Hero has 6c 9c (two pair, nines and sixes).
Button has 7h 5d (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $416.20.

Anyway, I’ll go ahead and reveal my cards and the results, then I’ll get into my thoughts on what my range ought to be here:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($605.25)
Hero ($1134.25)
BB ($609)
UTG ($1229)
UTG+1 ($668.20)
MP1 ($591)
MP2 ($702.15)
MP3 ($216.50)
CO ($726)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8h, 8s.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $12, 2 folds, Button calls $12, Hero calls $9, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($48) Jc, 8c, Jd (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $42, Button raises to $131, Hero raises to $1122.25, BB folds, MP2 folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: $1343.25

Results in white below:

No showdown. Hero wins $1343.25.

Villain begged me to tell him what I had, and I told him that I would if he would tell me what’s the worst hand he calls with. He agreed, I answered him truthfully, and he fold me AJ is the worst hand he’d call with. He also told me that he folded KJ.

He spent a lot of time in the tank before folding, and I do believe that he folded a J. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he’s telling the truth about his actual hand, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he were lying about the strength of his kicker.

What’s My Range?

If Villain is really folding KJ here, my answer would change, and we’ll come back to that in a moment. I do think BTN has a J just about always when he makes this raise. MP2 has made a very large continuation bet into three players, and BTN’s raise is also quite large. If he wanted to raise as a bluff, I believe he would have chosen a smaller amount. I doubt this is a play he would make against someone he considered very good. In this case, he probably just assumed that MP2 had hand he liked and would have difficult letting it go, and consequently made an exploitable raise that he would only make with a hand with which he’s willing to stack off to MP2.

With 88, there was no question that I wanted to shove. I don’t think there is any hand that I would cold-call here except maybe JJ just because even though it would look suspicious as hell the only hand that could call a shove (88) probably wouldn’t get away anyway. I’d never cold-call a draw here, and consequently cold calling is going to look even stronger than shoving, which is something I could conceivably do with good draws.

There are a few really key points to recognize about my shoving range: (1) When I have trips, my kicker matters; and (2) It should be unbalanced and should not contain any draws. Because of the size of the pot and the number of players involved, everyone’s ranges must be very strong. Consequently, balance is not really a consideration. Given how much we are risking relative to the pot and how many players are left to act behind us, anything resembling a bluff is out of the question. It’s just a question of which hands are strong enough to stack off with here, and that boils down to equity vs. Villain’s calling range.

Kickers Matter

Let’s assume that Villains raising range consists of JTs, QJs, KJs, AJs, KJo, AJo, and 88. This assumes that he folds JTo and QJ pre-flop and that he slowplays quads and J8 (if he has this in his range). Likewise if he happens to have something like J9 where his kicker is very weak, we’ll assume that he doesn’t raise that either. Combinatorically, he has

(2) JTs
(2) QJs
(2) KJs
(2) AJs
(8) KJo
(8) AJo
(3) 88

If he calls only with AJ and 88, then he folds 14 combos and calls with 11 combos. This means that we win a $221 pot slightly over half the time when we shove. We are risking $600 to make this play, though, so our equity when called is going to matter a great deal.

Against a calling range of {AJo,AJs,88}, JTs has 23% equity, and QJs and KJs have slightly less than that (because they will make fewer running straights). Ordinarily, the card removal effect of our holding trips would be quite significant, but in this case his calling range includes 88 but his folding range consists entirely of J’s, so holding a J actually increases the likelihood that we’ll be called.

When we hold AJs, his combos change to

(1) JTs
(1) QJs
(1) KJs
(1) AJs
(4) KJo
(2) AJo
(3) 88

Assuming a calling range of {AJo,AJs,88}, he folds 7/13. Given that the pot is $221 when he folds, we have $119 in fold equity.

AJs has 36.086% equity against that calling range. If only BTN calls our shove, the pot is $1343.25, giving us $484.73 in showdown equity.

Adding our showdown equity and our fold equity gives us $603.73, whereas we are risking $594 when only the BTN calls, making this very marginally +EV. The possibility of BTN calling with KJ or having a few random lighter hands in his raising range that he folds is probably enough to compensate for the risk of BB or MP2 waking up with 88, making this a shove with AJs.

AJo actually has about .5% more equity than AJs because of the possibility of backdoor club draws, making that a shove as well, but shoving KJ or worse would be a losing play when our opponents fold trips with a worse kicker. Even if we put KJs and KJo in BTN’s calling range, we don’t have enough equity to shove KJs profitably, and the other Villains are even less likely to call with these hands than is BTN.

In fact, our equity with KJ is so poor that even adding a few hands to Villain’s raise-folding range and thus increasing our fold equity isn’t enough to make it profitable.

Semi-Bluffing is Not Profitable

Against a calling range of {AJo,AJs,88}, Tc9c has 33%, making a shove slightly -EV. Adding KJs and KJo to Villains’ range gives Tc9c 36% equity when called, but it drastically lowers our fold equity, meaning that we still can’t shove it profitably. All other draws have much worse equity when called and thus will not be profitable, either.

This actually came as a surprise to me. My instinct was to shove Tc9c here, and I told Villain that I would have. It feels weird to shove only value hands in a spot where Villain is able to make some big folds, but it’s nonetheless correct in this case.

What if BTN Has a Draw?

BTN needs 36% equity to call this shove. Even if he has Tc9c, which is his highest equity draw vs. our shoving range, he has only 33% equity against {AJs,AJo,88}. Even if he were to raise with this hand, which isn’t a guarantee, he can’t call our shove.

If you include KJs and KJo in our shoving range, then he has the equity to call with Tc9c, but we’ve already seen why we can’t profitably shove those hands. Even putting Tc9c into his calling range doesn’t make it profitable for us to shove KcJ, which is our highest-equity KJ.

Conclusion

I’m shoving only {AJo,AJs,88} here. I’d cold call exactly JJ, and I’d fold everything else.

Since When is it Correct to Be Unbalanced?

MP2 and BTN started it. They both presumably have ranges that are really unbalanced. If I thought that they were both bluffing with optimal frequency, then I wouldn’t be folding KJ or Tc9c here. However, my reads and their betsizing suggest otherwise. Assuming BTN is correct that MP2 will not fold as often as he should to a raise, then he is correct to exploit that with an unbalanced raising range. The risk of me “exploiting” him by folding Tc9c isn’t a reason not to do it, it’s just something that’s going to make his raise slightly less profitable. BB and I will wake up with hands so infrequently that BTN is correct to focus on exploiting MP2, if he believes that he can.

Consequently, I made the decision to call down based on the fact that the board came out very badly for my range. I think Villain would (correctly) expect me to bet flush draws on the flop, and the check-call probably indicates either a pair of T’s or a pocket pair to him. QT isn’t the absolute top of my range here- that would be something like AT or KdT, but it’s close enough to the top that I think it needs to be in my calling range against a Villain capable of triple barreling on a run-out that’s bad for my perceived range. The fact that draws missed on the river should also increase his bluffing frequency, as he may expect me to be on a pair + draw planning to fold if I don’t improve.

Don’t get me wrong: I don’t expect to be good here anywhere near all the time. He would surely play flushes, straights, and probably AJ and AT this way. This isn’t even a particularly good line to take, and it’s not something I planned from the beginning. I just checked, and then he kept betting, and I kept thinking about how unlikely I was to have a good hand and therefore how much he ought to be bluffing me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB ($456.10)
UTG ($600.80)
Button ($1008.80)
Hero ($2248.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ts, Qs.
1 fold, Button raises to $9.2, Hero raises to $32.8, 1 fold, Button calls $23.60.

Flop: ($70.40) 3c, Td, Jd (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $48, Hero calls $48.

Turn: ($166.40) Ad (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $126, Hero calls $126.

River: ($418.40) 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $288, Hero calls $288.

Final Pot: $994.40

Results in white below:
Hero has Ts Qs (one pair, tens).
Button has 7c 4c (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $994.40.

One last comment, regarding the 3-bet: Villain actually had pretty high F3B stats, but most of my history with him is from 100BB games. If I knew he would have such a wide calling range, I would not have 3-bet this hand.

Reads:

MP2 I’ve never played with before but he’s at a couple of tables and is probably decent, just a little too loose and a little too passive to be considered Tight-Aggressive.

BTN is a regular who often plays higher stakes than this. He plays a lot of tables at once and is smart but not the most aggressive/creative regular there is.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($605.25)
Hero (SB) ($1134.25)
BB ($609)
UTG ($1229)
UTG+1 ($668.20)
MP1 ($591
MP2 ($702.15)
MP3 ($216.50)
CO ($726)

Preflop: Hero is SB with X X
3 folds, MP2 bets $12, 2 folds, Button calls $12, Hero calls $9, BB calls $6

Flop: ($48) J, 8, J (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $42, Button raises to $131, Hero raises to $1122.25 (All-In)

Note that I have both of these players covered by a wide margin. MP2 has about $650 behind, and BTN has about $462 behind, at the time that I shove.

So, what’s your range? We’re looking for two-card combinations here, so don’t just tell me “trips”- we want to know your kicker!

I’ll give everyone a few days to think and comment, and I’ll post results and my thoughts on Sunday.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB ($180.75)
UTG ($394)
Hero ($400)
CO ($545.50)
Button ($499.90)
SB ($418.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jc, Kc.
1 fold, Hero raises to $12, CO raises to $38, Button calls $38, 2 folds, Hero calls $26.

Flop: ($120) Qh, Qc, 9d (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($120) 6s (3 players)
Hero bets $87.75, CO folds, Button calls $87.75.

River: ($295.50) 7h (2 players)
Hero bets $274.25 (All-In), Button calls $274.25.

Final Pot: $844

Results in white below:
Hero has Jc Kc (one pair, queens).
Button has Qs As (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Button wins $844.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

BB (t3000)
UTG (t840)
Hero (t3359)
CO (t5965)
Button (t2950)
SB (t3205)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Tc, 9c.
1 fold, Hero raises to t100, 3 folds, BB calls t50.

Flop: (t225) 2d, 3d, 6c (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t123, BB calls t123.

Turn: (t471) Qs (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t471) Kh (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t266, BB folds.

Final Pot: t737
Results in white below:
Hero has Tc 9c (high card, king).
Outcome: Hero wins t737.

I rivered a K, obv. Particularly effective against players who don’t pull fancy moves like floating out of position (this guy can have Ax I think but not a random Kx or Qx float) or check-raising the river.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($691.50)
Hero ($605.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kh, Ah.
Button raises to $18, Hero raises to $60, Button calls $42.

Flop: ($120) 7h, 6h, 3c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($120) 3s (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $65, Hero calls $65.

River: ($250) 2c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $190, Hero calls $190.

Final Pot: $630

Results in white below:
Hero has Kh Ah (one pair, threes).
Button has Qc 9c (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $630.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1959.40)
BB ($628)
UTG ($1069.20)
MP ($1539.40)
Hero (CO) ($1464.60)
Button ($1522.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds

Flop: ($52.20) 2, 5, J (2 players)
Hero bets $33, Button calls $33

Turn: ($118.20) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($118.20) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $99, Button raises to $360, Hero raises to $1412.40 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $838.20 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show K, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $835.20

Villain floats a lot, so I was actually planning to check-raise the turn expecting him to bet a lot of draws and such. When he doesn’t bet, he announces that he has showdown value, almost surely a pair. Thus, I bet the river to rep a whiffed check-raise or a one-pair hand playing pot control. Apparently I convinced him, because he turned his middle pair into a bluff. Would be pretty sick if he had tanked and called me with like 33 turned into a bluff and then a bluff-catcher!

Blinds are $.50/$1 and effective stacks are $100. Hero opens to $3 with AQs in the CO. An aggressive player on the BTN 3-bets to $10, blinds fold, and action is on Hero. I believe that 4-bet-folding here is a mistake. I also believe that when possible, we should prefer 4-bet-calling to flat-calling if for no other reason than because it is more effective at deterring future 3-bets. The question is “How often does BTN have to be 3-betting before 4-bet-calling becomes better than just flat-calling?”

There are better and more complicated answers to this problem than the one I will find here. You will get a better answer if you can estimate a 5-betting range for Villain and then perform the same calculations that I do here. You will get an even better answer if you come up with an entire 4-betting range for yourself, including both hands that fold to a 5-bet and those that call. As an example, though, we will solve for the minimum 3-betting range such that 4-bet-calling AQs is unexploitable.

Finding the 3B% at which 4-bet-calling is unexploitable requires finding the point at which this play is break-even against a worst-case scenario 5-betting range that contains every hand that is tied with or ahead of AQs: {22+,AQs+,AQo+}. This range constitutes 8.3% of hands and has 56.7% equity against Hero’s AQs. We need to write an equation expressing Hero’s EV as a function of Villain’s Fold % (%F) and set that equation equal to 0.

0= %F * $14.5 + (1-%F) * (.433 * $104.50 + .567 * -$97)

9.75=$14.5%F + $9.75F

40% ~ %F

With a little rounding, we see that Villain needs to fold 40% of the time to make this a break-even 4-bet-call. We know that the 60% of his range that he does not fold constitutes 8.3% of all hands, so now we need to ask, “What is Villain’s 3-betting range such that 8.3 constitutes 60% of it?” Dividing 8.3 by .6 gives us 13.8%, so if Villain’s range for 3-betting BTN vs CO is greater than 13.8%, then you are guaranteed to have a profitable 4-bet-call with AQs.

In practice, his range will probably not even need to be this wide, as this assumes that he 5-bets only and exactly the hands that are not losing to AQs. If small/medium pairs are not in his 3-betting range, which is true of many players, then your fold equity increases. If he occasionally 5-bets hands that AQs dominates, then your equity goes way up. So 13.8% would be a very safe number, but realistically if I feel like I am getting 3-bet more than 10% of the time, I am ready to 4-bet-call it off with AQs.

As I finished this last paragraph, I realized that I didn’t account for the card removal effect of Hero holding an A and Q. I think this is otherwise correct, though, and the point was really to see the method more so than the result. If you care about that level of specificity… well, you’re on your own.

One of my students and I were recently discussing a common situation: You open with AQs in the CO and get 3-bet by an aggressive player on the button. Assuming 100 BB stacks, I don’t like any line that results in you folding pre-flop. I think your options are either to 4-bet-call if you think his shoving range will be wide enough or just to call the 3-bet if you think you’d have to fold to a 4-bet.

He then asked me what would be the cut-off, in terms of the BTN’s 3-betting range, for 4-bet-calling vs. just calling the 3-bet and taking a flop. I wasn’t prepared to give an answer off the top of my head, and as I started working it, I figured it would be an interesting blog post.

The answer will change a bit depending on the sizes of the bets, but the method will remain the same. I’m going to use the actual sizes from the example we were discussion. So, Hero opens for $3, BTN re-raises to $10, and Hero is contemplating a 4-bet to $24.

Basically we’re assuming here that BTN will always 5-bet or fold if we 4-bet. We’re also assuming that we have a good guess at his 3-betting range but don’t know what his 5-betting range will be. Thus, the real question is how wide does his 3-betting range need to be before 4-bet-calling AQ is unexploitable?

To solve this, we can pretend we’re playing our hand face up, with the constraints that he must either shove or fold and we will always call. Thus, he will shove AK, AQ, and all pocket pairs but fold everything else. Our equity gets a bit better the more pocket pairs are in his shoving range, but to make the math easier, I’m just going to give him a shoving range of {TT+,AQs+,AQo+}, against which AQs has about 38% equity.

We want to find the point at which 4-bet-calling is break-even, so we need to write an EV equation for this play and set it equal to 0. The EV of 4-bet-calling AQs will be equal to

0= %Fold * $13 + (1-%Fold) * (.38 * $201.50 + .62 * -$97)

(1-F) (-$16.43) = -13F

F = .56

If he never 5-bet shoves a hand that beats AQs, then he would need to fold 56% of the time to make a 4-bet profitable. The shoving range we gave him represents 4.7% of hands, so if he 3-bets at least 11% of the time in this spot, we can profitably 4-bet-call AQs no matter what his true 5-betting range is.

In theory you’d also want to compare the EV of 4-betting to calling, though it’s considerably more difficult to estimate the EV of calling. Against an aggressive 3-better, though, I want to 4-bet pretty much any hand that I can profitably 4-bet just because it’s so annoying to have someone sitting on my left 3-betting me. The more I can do to discourage that, the better, and generally a strategy that involves a lot of 4-betting is a better deterrent to aggressive 3-betting than is a flat-calling strategy.

Cliff’s Notes for the Math-Phobic: What I did here was find the point where, even against a worst-case scenario 5-betting range, it would be profitable to 4-bet-call AQs as a semi-bluff. If his 3-betting range is at least 11%, then there is nothing he can do to make it unprofitable for us to 4-bet-call AQs.

I’ll start by giving you the results, and then I’ll let you know how and why I made the decision that I did and what my thinking is on the most relevant HUD statistics.
UTG ($1570)
MP ($1124)
Button ($2200)
Hero (SB) ($1000)
BB ($1017)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, K
3 folds, Hero bets $40, BB calls $30

Flop: ($80) 6, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $55, BB calls $55

Turn: ($190) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $150, Hero calls $150

River: ($490) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $772 (All-In), Hero calls $755 (All-In)

Total pot: $2000 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 7, K (two pair, Kings and sixes).
BB had A, 10 (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $1997

When I checked the river, it was with the intention of calling a reasonably sized bet. If Villain bets something in the neighborhood of $300, he can conceivably be value betting as wide as A8, and my K7 is an easy call. As many of you pointed out, the overbet almost certainly polarizes him to air or hands that are better than mine. I suppose he could be shoving a worse K, in which case we’d chop, but that’s not going to be a major consideration.

I don’t know enough about this player to tell you just how wide he’s value betting the river or whether he’s capable of overbetting as a bluff- some people just don’t do it.

When someone is representing a narrow range, a key question for me is how wide his range is for getting to this point in the hand. Without knowing anything a player’s specific river tendencies, I’m comfortable assuming that the likelihood of his bluffing a particular street increases considerably when he can get to that point in the hand with a lot of air.

Good players are almost always capable of having relatively wide ranges for betting. In other words, I rarely take a bet as evidence that a guy has a hand. Likewise, most good players will recognize that they can call a raise in position blind vs. blind with a lot of hands, so regardless of what his pre-flop statistics look like, I’m going to assume his range isn’t all that narrow pre-flop. As Chris M. points out, his 3B% is potentially relevant for ruling out some of his thin value range such as KQ/KJ/KT. This is potentially a tough decision even we can rule out KT+, as many commenters did, and I also don’t know that a number would actually give us that information. I can tell you that my 3B% is generally pretty high in Villain’s shoes but that I often flat-call KT and KJ.

The decision point that is most likely to narrow Villain’s range is the flop. Moreso than betting or raising, calling is generally an indication that a player likes his hand at least a little bit.

I take it as a given that any good player with a wide flop calling range is going to be aggressive on the turn. Presumably if he calls the flop with a weak hand, it’s with the intention of bluffing the turn, so I rule out TAFq as a deciding factor.

RAFq is problematic for a few reasons. For one, the deeper we get into the hand, the less reliable our statistics become. Compounding the problem is the fact that this is a rather unique situation. Thus, I don’t expect to find much useful information in this statistic, nor did many of you.

When I posted this question, I intended for FCB to be the correct answer. However, several people made a compelling case for FAFq, enough so that if this were a test I’d give credit for either answer. I may have been biased because Villains FCB was actually extraordinarily low, such that it was even more of a determining factor for me than it otherwise would have been. Over nearly 400 hands, I’d seen him fold just 10% of the time to a continuation bet.

What this tells me is that he is fighting hand, probably too hard, for every pot in which he is involved. As soon as I saw that, I clicked “Call”. Not only does this very low number suggest that Villain can get to the river with a wide range, but it also tells me something about his approach to the game. He is clearly willing to put players to the test, and that seems to be exactly what was going on here.

I took it for granted that a low FCB would imply a lot of floating, but the people arguing for FAFq, primarily Shawn and Drew, raised a good point. It’s possible that he prefers attacking continuation bets by bluff-raising rather than by floating. Thus, it’s theoretically possible that even if he has a low FCB, he nevertheless does not get to the river this way with air because he would have raised rather than called his air on the flop. The FAFq statistic would help us figure out whether this was the case.

I think that would be more relevant if his FCB weren’t so absurdly low, which of course is information that you all did not have. Had his FCB been more like 40%, I would definitely want to look next to FAFq to figure out whether he was raising or calling his air on the flop.

As an aside, I find it odd that Villain chose to turn AT into a bluff on the turn. Perhaps he thought that my checking a good barreling card indicated that I could beat A-high. I’m sure he realized that he would have the best hand more often than not on the flop, and I’d expect a lot of people just to check it down.

Thanks again to everyone who participated.

PS If you’re interested in learning more about floating, I recommend Float On, a strategy article that I wrote on the subject.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($646.60)
SB ($1000)
Hero (BB) ($1000)
UTG ($458)
MP ($2288.55)
CO ($1148)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
2 folds, CO bets $30, 2 folds, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($65) 10, 5, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $50, Hero raises to $170, CO raises to $290, Hero raises to $970 (All-In), CO calls $680

Turn: ($2005) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($2005) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $2005 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had K, Q (two pair, Queens and sevens).
CO had 10, 10 (full house, tens over sevens).
Outcome: CO won $2002

This guy has a wide range for raising from this position and betting even a textured flop like this, and consequently I think I can check-raise KQ for value. He can call and possibly even make a big 3-bet with worse because he will expect me to have a lot of draws. I think his small 3-bet has to be strong, though, because I will so often have a draw good enough to jam. Even if he occasionally 3-bets as a bluff, I’m crushed by his calling range, which contains few if any draws. What I really need to do here is check-raise-shove good draws but check-raise-fold KQ, at least to a 3-bet of this size.

Take a look at the hand, and then sound off on the question I’ve got for you at the end:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($1570)
MP ($1124)
Button ($2200)
Hero (SB) ($1000)
BB ($1017)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, K
3 folds, Hero bets $40, BB calls $30

Flop: ($80) 6, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $55, BB calls $55

Turn: ($190) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $150, Hero calls $150

River: ($490) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $772 (All-In)

Suppose that you were going to have to make this decision. I tell you that he is a winning regular at these stakes, and I offer to give you just ONE of the following statistics that I have on him, based on a sample size of 397 hands played in 6-max games. Which would you choose and why?

Voluntarily Put Money In Pot (VP$IP)
Pre-Flop Raise (PFR)
Three-Bet Percent (3B%)
Aggression Factor (AF)
Fold to Continuation Bet (FCB)
Flop Aggression Frequency (FAFq)
Turn Aggression Frequency (TAFq)
River Aggression Frequency (RAFq)

I want to wait a few days to give everyone a chance to comment, so I’ll post my thoughts on Sunday.

No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($290.30)
CO ($416.70)
Hero (Button) ($1140.90)
SB ($825.50)
BB ($415.80)
UTG ($1163.10)
UTG+1 ($422)
MP1 ($279.10)
MP2 ($1092.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 7
UTG bets $8, 5 folds, Hero calls $8, SB raises to $40, 2 folds, Hero calls $32

Flop: ($92) 10, J, K (2 players
SB bets $60, Hero calls $60

Turn: ($212) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $180, Hero calls $180

River: ($572) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $860.90 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $572 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show 9, 7 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $569

No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($768.90)
MP2 ($946.20)
MP3 ($162)
CO ($400)
Button ($144)
SB ($402)
BB ($475)
UTG ($400)
Hero (UTG+1) ($480)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10, 6 folds, BB calls $6

Flop: ($32) 6, 10, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $11, 1 fold, UTG calls $11

Turn: ($54) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($54) 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $69, UTG calls $69

Total pot: $192 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
Hero had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $189

Note that my doing this for “thin” value means that his 77 is not a pure bluff-catcher, functionally equivalent to QQ. I probably would have played 66 or 88 the same way.

UTG+1 ($600)
MP1 ($600.10)
MP2 ($309.35)
MP3 ($1521.45)
CO ($1167.20)
Hero (Button) ($618)
SB ($663)
BB ($600)
UTG ($444)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 10
5 folds, CO bets $15, Hero calls $15, 2 folds

Flop: ($39) 3, Q, 5 (2 players)
CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($87) K (2 players)
CO bets $60, Hero calls $60

River: ($207) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $138, Hero raises to $519 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $483 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, 10 (nothing).
Outcome: $483 returned to Hero

Obviously these flop and turn calls are pretty thin. I do think that if he checks the river I can showdown the best hand a fair bit of the time. The fact that I can occasionally pull off something like this helps to justify the earlier calls. It’s a good time to bluff when I have the bottom of range and the only draw on the flop got there. I think I can rep not just a straight but also 33 and 55. It’s a narrow range, but I don’t think he expects me to bluff often in this spot, either.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1546.80)
SB ($3819.10)
BB ($1477.80)
Hero (UTG) ($1844.50)
MP ($1745.95)
CO ($2134.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero bets $24, 2 folds, Button raises to $78, 2 folds, Hero calls $54

Flop: ($165) J, 4, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $126.90, Hero calls $126.90

Turn: ($418.80) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($418.80) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $372, Hero raises to $1638.40 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1162.80 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show 8, 8 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1167

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($1030.05)
BB ($834.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, K
Hero bets $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 6, 5, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, BB calls $18

Turn: ($60) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $99, BB raises to $299, Hero raises to $999.25 (All-In), BB calls $504.40 (All-In)

River: ($1666.80) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $1666.80 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 2, K (one pair, twos).
BB had 9, 8 (straight, nine high).
Outcome: $1666.80 returned to BB

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($2923.25)
SB ($2604.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, Q
SB bets $40, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($80) 10, 3, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $66, SB calls $66

Turn: ($212) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $187, SB calls $187

River: ($586) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $444, SB raises to $980, Hero raises to $2630.25 (All-In), SB calls $1331.25 (All-In)

Total pot: $5208.50 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 9, 6 (straight, ten high).
Hero had 10, Q (one pair, tens).
Outcome: $5208.50 returned to SB

First, I’ll show you what happened:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($9526.50)
SB ($3306)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 3, 10, K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: ($120) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $120, SB calls $120

River: ($360) A (2 players)
Hero bets $269, SB calls $269

Total pot: $898 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had A, J (one pair, Aces).
Hero had Q, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: $898 returned to SB

Thinking over this session after I finished playing for the night, it occurred to me that a more creative option may have been best in this hand. I chose to value bet because I expected Villain rarely to bluff and always to check behind hands worse than mine. I felt it was close as to whether I’d be ahead of his calling range, but I didn’t want to check-fold.

I want to highlight a comment from Lin Sherman which hit on pretty much exactly what I thought about this hand upon further consideration:

Except perhaps for A6, I can’t put him on a hand that can stand a check-raise. So I check. If he checks, fine, I got to see a cheap showdown. If he bets anything, I raise.

I think betting is all wrong here. If he has an ace he’ll just call, giving me zero chance of getting him off it. If he has less, he’ll probably fold. It would be really hard for him to bluff-raise here, even I make a come-get-me bet. If for some reason I did bet and he raised, I’d probably call, but I don’t think he’s going to raise.

I think this is pretty much spot-on. The only thing I’d add is a possible objection to this line of thinking, which it turns out commenter Christoph already spelled out quite well:

I think villain will often feel obligated to pay off a c/r with Ax, because the way the hand went down, he’ll very rarely have a better hand than that. It would also be a not very standard line to take for value and in my experience (at a lower level) people are more suspicious when they face an unusual line. Even if Villain gives Hero credit to take this line for value, the only hand that makes sense is QJ, sets and maybe AT. If Villain thinks Hero is capable of c/ring the river, I doubt he’d fold Ax to a c/r.

I think Christoph has a valid point here. Against someone I knew to be a very good hand reader, or a Level One calling station, I wouldn’t attempt this check-raise. I don’t feel that this Villain was either, which means that I really have no idea how he’d respond to a check-raise. Given that I also had no idea how he’d respond to a value bet, though, I don’t think I’d have much to lose by going for the check-raise, and I wish I had.

Thanks to everyone who played along. I enjoyed reading all of your thoughts, and I’ll try to get another interesting spot up for comment soon.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($2289.50)
SB ($2098.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 4
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) A, 5, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $60, Hero calls $60

Turn: ($240) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: ($240) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $88, SB raises to $600, Hero calls $512

Total pot: $1440 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 8, K (high card, Ace).
Hero had 4, 4 (straight, six high).
Outcome: Hero won $1439.50

Hero (BB) ($3307.50)
SB ($2010)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 3
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 5, 4, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $100, Hero raises to $277, SB calls $177

Turn: ($674) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $388, SB calls $388

River: ($1450) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $1285 (All-In), Hero calls $1285

Total pot: $4020 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 6, 9 (high card, Queen).
Hero had 3, 3 (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero won $4019.50

I like check-raising this hand for a number of reasons: I don’t want to give free cards to random overs, I have blockers to the hands that have me in really bad shape (63, 53, 43), and I can plausibly get action from any sort of Ax that thinks it has two overs and a gutshot but actually has just 5 outs against me. I certainly intended to call a turn shove, but when he didn’t shove, I was sure he was drawing. I check-snapped the river expecting to see Ax, but this works too.

Villain views me as aggressive but not crazy. It is extremely unlikely that he is checking behind either a strong made hand or a strong draw on the flop, and he knows that I know that. Other relevant history is that I caught him turning a pair into a bluff when I underbet a river that completed several draws; I had actually rivered a straight.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($9526.50)
SB ($3306)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 3, 10, K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: ($120) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $120, SB calls $120

River: ($360) A (2 players)

Hero?

If you bet, be sure to tell us how much and how you will respond to a raise. Likewise, if you check, let us know your plan if Villain bets. I’ll post my thoughts after people have had some time to comment.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($7477)
CO ($2314)
Hero (Button) ($6720)
SB ($6379)
BB ($2207)
UTG ($9558.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
1 fold, MP bets $60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $240, 2 folds, MP calls $180

Flop: ($510) 10, J, 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $333, MP raises to $980, Hero calls $647

Turn: ($2470) 5 (2 players)
MP bets $1650, Hero calls $1650

River: ($5770) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $2200, Hero raises to $3850 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $10170 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $10167

This isn’t intrinsically a bad line to take as a bluff, but if Villain is telling the truth, he chose a bad hand for it. The problem is that he’s never really in a position to make a strong hand. I’d been 3-betting him a lot, but 300+ BB’s deep, you can’t get away with calling out of position with a small gap suited connector. Even he makes a flush, there will be many spots where he can’t get all his money in with confidence. 64s just doesn’t make many hands worth 300 BBs, and consequently isn’t worth playing, at least not from out of position.

Likewise on the flop he’s got a single backdoor draw that isn’t necessarily to the nuts. Check-raising light is fine, but he should at least choose hands that have some equity.

He has to bet the turn, but it really highlights the problem with his pre-flop and flop play. Now he’s semi-bluffing with a draw to a hand weaker than what he’s trying to represent. Once he hits the straight, his hand is overrepresented, and he still can’t bet it with confidence. In fact, he ends up bet-folding the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($453.80)
BB ($418)
UTG ($400)
UTG+1 ($402)
MP1 ($402)
MP2 ($427.20)
MP3 ($400)
CO ($240)
Hero (Button) ($962)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 9
6 folds, Hero bets $8, SB calls $6, BB raises to $36, Hero raises to $77, 1 fold, BB calls $41

Flop: ($162) 6, K, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $66, BB calls $66

Turn: ($294) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $99, BB calls $99

River: ($492) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $492, 1 fold

Total pot: $492 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, 9 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $489

MP3 ($126.70)
CO ($508.10)
Button ($470.80)
SB ($443.50)
Hero (BB) ($823)
UTG ($469.40)
UTG+1 ($793.10)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($376.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 10
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $12, 4 folds, Button calls $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($38) J, 5, 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $28, UTG+1 calls $28, Button calls $28

Turn: ($122) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $99, 1 fold, Button calls $99

River: ($320) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $210, Hero calls $210

Total pot: $740 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had K, Q (one pair, fives).
Hero had 9, 10 (two pair, tens and fives).
Outcome: Hero won $737

UTG is a predictable TAG regular, and BTN is a loose-ish random. I donk the flop because my hand isn’t good enough to call a c-bet but also doesn’t generally want to see the flop check around. Also I am already thinking about possibly getting UTG off of an overpair by three-barreling.

After the flop action, I am confident that UTG has a better hand than mine and that BTN is on a draw. The turn bet puts a lot of pressure on UTG. Not just anyone will fold top pair/an overpair here, but I think he will, if not now then on the river. Of course having him fold and BTN call is the ideal outcome.

And then a brick on the river makes for an easy check-call. I probably lose to AJ or Kc Qc now and again, but that’s about it.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($205.20)
Button ($615)
Hero (SB) ($1643.25)
BB ($439.60)
UTG ($464.10)
UTG+1 ($1420.30)
MP1 ($426.70)
MP2 ($406)
MP3 ($400)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q
6 folds, Button bets $8, Hero raises to $32, 1 fold, Button raises to $70, Hero calls $38

Flop: ($144) 6, A, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $20, Hero raises to $123, Button raises to $545 (All-In), Hero calls $422

Turn: ($1234) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1234) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $1234 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 9, Q (high card, Ace).
Hero had K, Q (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $1231

His flop shove is atrocious because he’s so often drawing slim to dead when called. Check-raising his underbet is very important. Although he probably will fold sometimes, there’s no way he makes a bet like that without expecting me to play back at a fair bit of the time. That means that he’s sometimes trying to induce with some big hand (a set, perhaps) and also that he’ll float and/or rebluff it. Although I have blockers to his rebluffing range, we can see that he’s willing to be quite liberal about it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($8175)
SB ($2778)
Hero (BB) ($4820)
UTG ($2088)
MP ($3868)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, 8
1 fold, MP bets $60, 1 fold, SB calls $50, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($200) 4, Q, 4 (3 players)
SB bets $140, Hero calls $140, 1 fold

Turn: ($480) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($480) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $888, SB raises to $2574 (All-In), Hero calls $1686

Total pot: $5628 | Rake: $2

Results:
SB had K, J (full house, fours over Queens).
Hero had Q, 8 (full house, Queens over fours).
Outcome: Hero won $5626

I guess he excluded a Queen from my range after my turn check and thought he could get me off of a chop and maybe a pocket pair?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($518.20)
SB ($490.30)
BB ($276.80)
Hero (UTG) ($773.50)
UTG+1 ($1109.10)
MP1 ($154.10)
MP2 ($1936.65)
MP3 ($943.80)
CO ($517)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero calls $4, 4 folds, CO bets $22, 3 folds, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($50) 8, 4, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $28, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($106) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($106) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $66, CO raises to $467 (All-In), Hero calls $401

Total pot: $1040 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 8, 8 (four of a kind, eights).
CO had Q, Q (full house, fours over Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $1037

There are two important points in particular that I wanted to highlight with this hand:

1. You don’t have to check to induce a bluff or value bet. This is a spot where I will be betting a ton of semi-bluffs (semi- because I’ll often split the pot when called). Villain has plenty of incentive to raise both as a bluff and with any hand that beats the board. More passive opponents just won’t do this- it’s a big leak in their game, and you can exploit it with unbalanced ranges. But in this case I gave Villain credit for being capable of raising a wideish range.

2. Although it’s generally correct to target the top of your opponent’s range when you have the nuts, you do want to think about all of your options. In this case, I can stack the top of his range without overbetting, and this is often the case. When you have someone genuinely coolered, they will often do the value betting for you as long as you don’t tip your hand. A massive overbet or a check-raise would both turn a hand like QQ, that he is otherwise willing to play like the nuts, into a bluff-catcher. He may or may not pay off with QQ if we attempt something like that.

Thanks again for all the interesting comments!

Hero (CO) ($2068)
Button ($1200)
SB ($1140)
BB ($2034)
UTG ($1082)
MP ($872)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $30, Button calls $30, 1 fold, BB calls $20

Flop: ($95) 9, J, Q (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, 1 fold, BB calls $77

Turn: ($249) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $366, BB calls $366

River: ($981) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1595 (All-In), BB calls $1561 (All-In)

Total pot: $4103 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had 10, J (full house, Jacks over nines).
Hero had Q, Q (full house, Queens over Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $4100

Ship it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (7 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($330)
CO ($1263.05)
Button ($1290)
SB ($600)
BB ($956.50)
UTG ($645)
Hero (MP1) ($907)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, A
1 fold, Hero bets $24, 1 fold, CO calls $24, Button calls $24, 1 fold, BB calls $18

Flop: ($99) 5, 10, 3 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, CO calls $77, 1 fold, BB calls $77

Turn: ($330) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($330) 9 (3 players)
BB bets $250, Hero folds, 1 fold

Total pot: $330 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $327

I felt crazy folding this, but I had a lot of trouble putting BB on a hand that I beat. His flop overcall looks like a draw, but I don’t see him bluffing into two players on the river when the board comes out so innocuously. Likewise I think he’s unlikely to hold the sorts of second-best hands that could value bet this river, especially for near-pot. Even if he plays AT or JJ this way pre-flop, I don’t know if he’d bet them this way on the river. The most plausible scenario I can think of for him value betting a worse hand is if he has like 9s 8s or something. So I guess I’m putting him on T9 or a slowplayed set.

Meh, putting that in writing makes me feel silly. 9s8s is probably more likely than T9, given the 9 on the board, and while I’m sure he’s capable of slowplaying a set in this spot, I’d expect him to raise the flop at least as often. That’s an awfully narrow range to put him on, and while both bluffing and thin value betting scenarios are pretty remote, so are the hands that beat me. Thanks for your help!

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($518.20)
SB ($490.30)
BB ($276.80)
Hero (UTG) ($773.50)
UTG+1 ($1109.10)
MP1 ($154.10)
MP2 ($1936.65)
MP3 ($943.80)
CO ($517)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero calls $4, 4 folds, CO bets $22, 3 folds, Hero calls $18

Flop: ($50) 8, 4, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $28, Hero calls $28

Turn: ($106) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($106) 8 (2 players)
Hero ??

Villain is a decent regular, a bit on the tight side but smart and capable. What do you do here and why?

SB ($1703)
BB ($743.05)
UTG ($600)
MP ($201.05)
Hero (Button) ($609)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 7
UTG bets $18, 1 fold, Hero calls $18, 1 fold, BB calls $12

Flop: ($57) Q, J, 7 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $36, Hero calls $36, BB calls $36

Turn: ($165) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $122, Hero calls $122, 1 fold

River: ($409) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $424 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $409 | Rake: $2

Results:
UTG didn’t show
Outcome: UTG won $407

Both Villains in the hand are reasonably good TAG regulars. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($471.10)
MP ($497.25)
CO ($380.70)
Hero (Button) ($445.15)
SB ($1167.20)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, K
2 folds, CO bets $10, Hero calls $10, 2 folds

Flop: ($26) K, 2, K (2 players)
CO bets $12.35, Hero calls $12.35

Turn: ($50.70) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $16, CO calls $16

River: ($82.70) 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $123, CO raises to $342.35 (All-In), Hero calls $219.35

Total pot: $767.40 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 10, K (three of a kind, Kings).
CO had 7, 7 (full house, sevens over Kings).
Outcome: CO won $764.40

Despite the odds I’m getting and the fact that I have one of the best bluff-catchers (as I block a K), I think an unknown player just isn’t bluffing ever in this spot. Maybe with like AK I can beat a few hands he shoves for value, but not with KT.

I was going to check-shove the turn. When Villain didn’t bet turn, I figured he was never calling 3x pot on the river (note that I’m only shoving about $100 given Villain’s stack size).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $2.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($125.10)
SB ($200)
BB ($200)
UTG ($262.50)
Hero (MP) ($344.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $6, Button calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) J, 6, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $11, Button calls $11

Turn: ($37) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($37) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $327.40 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $37 | Rake: $1.80

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($434)
BB ($160)
UTG ($400)
UTG+1 ($641.60)
Hero (MP1) ($1081.40)
MP2 ($418.40)
MP3 ($1143)
CO ($131)
Button ($402)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $12, Hero calls $12, 6 folds

Flop: ($30) 4, 9, 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $9, UTG+1 calls $9

Turn: ($48) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $15, UTG+1 raises to $64, Hero calls $49

River: ($176) 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $140, Hero raises to $996.40 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $416.60 (All-In)

Total pot: $1289.20 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG+1 had A, A (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and sevens).
Outcome: UTG+1 won $1286.20

When he check-raises the turn, I realize there’s a substantial risk that I’m not good. I don’t see him playing any full houses this way, so I went for it.

MP2 ($872.90)
MP3 ($1010.20)
CO ($389.50)
Button ($628.80)
SB ($444.90)
Hero (BB) ($1552.50)
UTG ($442.60)
UTG+1 ($401.20)
MP1 ($1206.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2
2 folds, MP1 bets $12, MP2 calls $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($38) 8, 7, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $26, MP1 calls $26, 1 fold

Turn: ($90) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $72, Hero raises to $299, MP1 raises to $555, Hero folds

Total pot: $688 | Rake: $3

Results:
MP1 didn’t show
Outcome: MP1 won $685

It may seem like I’m turning my hand into a bluff, but I believe worse hands will call the check-raise, but the only hands that 3-bet me will have me crushed. If he flat calls, I’m check-calling non-heart rivers.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($398.70)
MP3 ($804.30)
Hero (CO) ($1527.10)
Button ($1017.60)
SB ($1443.40)
BB ($400)
UTG ($432.50)
UTG+1 ($548.60)
MP1 ($563.85)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 2
5 folds, Hero bets $12, 1 fold, SB raises to $40, 1 fold, Hero calls $28

Flop: ($84) 6, 7, J (2 players)
SB bets $54, Hero calls $54

Turn: ($192) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $148, SB raises to $296, Hero raises to $1433.10 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $784 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, 2.
Outcome: Hero won $781

Pre-flop and flop are both relatively standard plays when this deep. You can and should call a lot more hands in position when there is so much money behind, especially when, as in this case, it is extremely unlikely that your opponent has better than one pair. These calls bank a bit on the implied odds of making a hand but moreso on the bluffing opportunities you will have on later streets.

How do I know he can’t be too strong here? For one thing, what I’ve seen suggests that his 3-betting range is relatively narrow and probably doesn’t contain 98s, 66, or 77. JJ and TT are possible, and even if he did 3-bet those other hands, I can’t imagine he just min-check-raises the turn this deep. Sets would be afraid of letting me draw, and the straight would want to build the pot. I’d expect either to bet the turn or check-raise big. I don’t know what exactly he is min-check-raising, but I seriously doubt it can call a shove. And of course worst case scenario I’ve got 6-9 clean outs when called.

UTG ($424.85)
UTG+1 ($167)
MP1 ($435)
Hero (MP2) ($1165.50)
MP3 ($638.40)
CO ($753)
Button ($744.75)
SB ($606.60)
BB ($433)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5, 5
3 folds, Hero bets $8, 4 folds, BB raises to $32, Hero calls $24

Flop: ($66) 4, 7, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $48, Hero calls $48

Turn: ($162) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $66, BB raises to $132, Hero calls $66

River: ($426) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $953.50 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $426 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show 5, 5 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $423

I don’t see him min check-raising anything worse than the Ac for value on the turn, and even then, I think he just bets it 99% of the time. That makes it an easy float and half-pot bluff shove on the river. FWIW I think calling the flop is pretty questionable unless you’re capable of turning your hand into a bluff sometimes. Even with a gutshot, 55 no club probably doesn’t have enough equity to play for showdown value alone.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) ($1886.10)
MP3 ($505.70)
CO ($1569.40)
Button ($400)
SB ($145.90)
BB ($188)
UTG ($1787.10)
UTG+1 ($400)
MP1 ($562.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 8
UTG bets $14, 2 folds, Hero calls $14, 2 folds, Button calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($48) 9, 4, 8 (3 players)
UTG bets $28, Hero raises to $77, 1 fold, UTG calls $49

Turn: ($202) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $145, UTG calls $145

River: ($492) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $350, UTG raises to $844, Hero calls $494

Total pot: $2180 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG had 9, 9 (full house, nines over sixes).
Hero had 8, 8 (full house, eights over sixes).
Outcome: UTG won $2177

His range for getting to the river is quite narrow. I think it’s 44, 99, AsA, KsK, and a few non-nut flushes like KsQs or something. My plan was to check the river unless the board paired, and to bet-fold a non-spade river that paired the board. So there’s exactly one river card, the 6s, on which I bet and call this check-raise.

I’m not sure how I feel about his sizing. If I were in his shoes, I’d have check-shoved, at least against opponents who aren’t capable of a big laydown. Then again, I would have folded if he’d check-shoved, so I guess this was better.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($587.50)
MP3 ($867.20)
CO ($182.90)
Button ($316)
SB ($543.20)
Hero (BB) ($459.20)
UTG ($379)
UTG+1 ($322)
MP1 ($562.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, MP1 bets $12, MP2 calls $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($38) 2, 7, 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $38, MP2 calls $38, Hero calls $38

Turn: ($152) J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks

River: ($152) 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $52, Hero raises to $409.20 (All-In), 2 folds

Total pot: $256 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $253

The important read here is that MP2 is a pretty huge nit. That’s mostly a pre-flop read, but I really don’t see him hero calling the river even with AA. I mean it wouldn’t be a bad call, but it’s not one that I see him making. Pre-flop is some combination of drawing, as the A and K are often good if I hit them, plus banking on being able to run a bluff like this even if I miss.

I expect Villain’s flop raise to be his only barrel if he is bluffing. That is, he’s usually going to check down his air and bet only if the river improves his hand to one that beats mine.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($709.80)
BB ($4005.10)
UTG ($413)
Button ($798.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 7
2 folds, Hero bets $16, BB calls $12

Flop: ($32) 9, 7, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BB raises to $72, Hero calls $48

Turn: ($176) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($176) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $124, Hero raises to $621.80 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $424 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show K, 7 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $422

Does he have the best hand when the Q falls? Often enough that I can’t call with a pure bluff catcher, I think. But can he call a shove, even with AQ? We’ll see…

I really had no idea what to put UTG+1 on here, but I didn’t think he’d play anything better than 99 this way on the flop. Obviously the K is rather unlikely to hit him, and while his turn bet is weird, I also wasn’t sure he’d check Kings on the river. Given the number of draws out there, though, I do think his line is a good one. I still like my value bet, though, even if knowing he can occasionally have a K.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($162)
Hero (Button) ($414.60)
SB ($309)
BB ($413)
UTG ($522.60)
UTG+1 ($544)
MP1 ($889.40)
MP2 ($335.80)
MP3 ($634.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $16, 4 folds, Hero calls $16, SB calls $14, 1 fold

Flop: ($52) 3, 7, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $17, SB calls $17, UTG+1 calls $17

Turn: ($103) K (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $55, Hero calls $55, 1 fold

River: ($213) 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $166, UTG+1 calls $166

Total pot: $545 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 9, 9 (two pair, nines and sixes).
UTG+1 had A, K (two pair, Kings and sixes).
Outcome: UTG+1 won $542

Honestly I can probably even fold the flop. Granted I have one of the best bluff-catching hands, but it’s just so unlikely Villain is bluffing here. Calling the flop to see what he does on the turn reduces the chance that I end up folding to trips with a worse kicker, but he’s one of the better Rush players, so I kind of doubt he’s overvaluing such a hand this way in the first place.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($648.60)
CO ($602.05)
Button ($160.90)
Hero (SB) ($420)
BB ($413.50)
UTG ($452.90)
UTG+1 ($219)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($860.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 8
5 folds, CO calls $4, Button calls $4, Hero calls $2, BB checks

Flop: ($16) 8, 4, 8 (4 players)
Hero bets $16, BB raises to $48, 2 folds, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($112) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $92, Hero folds

Total pot: $112 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $109

This first hand is an interesting juxtaposition to the failed bluff that I posted yesterday. On the one hand, this player was more of a known quantity than was yesterday’s Villain. On the other hand, my range is way wider in this situation, and I think calling with something like 99 is far more justifiable:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($400)

Hero (UTG+1) ($456)

MP1 ($1143.80)

MP2 ($650.90)

MP3 ($451.50)

CO ($58.30)

Button ($197.10)

SB ($446.20)

BB ($960.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K

1 fold, Hero bets $16, 5 folds, SB calls $14, 1 fold

Flop: ($36) Q, Q, 6 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $30, SB calls $30

Turn: ($96) 3 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $77, SB calls $77

River: ($250) 8 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets $333 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $250 | Rake: $3

Results:

Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).

Outcome: Hero won $247

This one is just neat because of the side pot dynamic. As you can see, the short stack’s range was stupid wide, so between the fact that even on the river I’m probably ahead of him and the fact that there is money in the sidepot, I think this is a neat bluff:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($384)
Button ($388)
SB ($416.30)
BB ($50.30)
UTG ($387.50)
UTG+1 ($270.10)
Hero (MP1) ($787.30)
MP2 ($363.20)
MP3 ($132)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets $14, MP2 calls $14, 1 fold, CO calls $14, Button calls $14, 1 fold, BB raises to $50.30 (All-In), Hero raises to $86.60, MP2 calls $72.60, 1 fold, Button calls $72.60

Flop: ($326.10) Q, 4, 7 (4 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $76, 1 fold, Hero calls $76

Turn: ($478.10) 3 (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

River: ($478.10) 9 (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets $624.70 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $478.10 | Rake: $3

Results:
BB had 4, 8 (one pair, fours).
Hero had K, A (high card, Ace).
Outcome: BB won $214.20, Hero won $260.90

The problem: I’ve usually got the best hand, but I don’t think a bet is getting called by worse.

The solution: Bet small and call the check-raise.

The catch: They always have it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($5810)
SB ($5107)
BB ($13717)
UTG ($10095)
MP ($5000)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, Q
UTG bets $150, 1 fold, Hero calls $150, 2 folds

Flop: ($375) 9, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($375) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $123, UTG calls $123

River: ($621) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $222, UTG raises to $1140, Hero calls $918

Total pot: $2901 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero mucked K, Q (two pair, Kings and Queens).
UTG had J, Q (straight, King high).
Outcome: UTG won $2899

PS I’m not thrilled with how I played this on earlier streets. No need to point it out.

Button ($3902.35)
SB ($1434)
BB ($911.25)
Hero (UTG) ($2747)
MP ($1000)
CO ($1242.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J
Hero bets $40, 2 folds, Button calls $40, 2 folds

Flop: ($95) J, 4, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $77, Button calls $77

Turn: ($249) A (2 players)
Hero bets $222, Button calls $222

River: ($693) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $555, Button raises to $1850, Hero folds

Total pot: $1803 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button didn’t show
Outcome: Button won $1800

Pretty gross spot. I feel like he actually shouldn’t be raising low flushes, since I could easily have the nuts myself. Maybe he has the straight flush? On the other hand it’s also a weird spot for him to turn a hand into a bluff, since again I could easily have a flush. Ultimately his aggression wasn’t that high, and I’m at the bottom of my value range, so I folded suspiciously.

I’ve been taking a beating in heads up games recently. There were one or two cases of bad game selection, but for the most part I don’t think I’ve playing or running all that badly. I’m losing to people against whom I’m pretty confident I have an edge, not because of bad luck or consistently bad play, but because I keep making like one big mistake per match. And the thing is, no matter how well you play 99% of your hands, you can’t afford to make a 100BB+ mistake, not even once. That just isn’t a handicap you can overcome.

Here was tonight’s. I was up about four buy-ins across on this guy across all the tables we were playing when this happened:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($8949.50)
BB ($28887)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 10
Hero bets $100, BB raises to $375, Hero raises to $950, BB calls $575

Flop: ($1900) 9, 6, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $699, BB raises to $2750, Hero raises to $7999.50 (All-In), BB calls $5249.50

Turn: ($17899) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($17899) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17899 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, 10 (one pair, sixes).
BB had Q, 8 (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: BB won $17898.50

I underbet the flop with the intention of shoving over a check-raise, and I don’t think that was a bad plan. What should have given me pause (what did, to be honest, give me pause, though I ignored it and shoved anyway) was the size of his check-raise. I was expecting a check-raise to about 2K with some mix of bluffs and value hand against which I have a boatload of outs. This larger check-raise, I think, is almost always a flush draw. And a flush draw is the only hand against which I don’t have good equity.

I went on to finish slightly down to this guy after losing a few more big pots that I think I played fine but that just didn’t go my way. Erase this hand and I’m up. Unfortunately it doesn’t work like that. The only way to erase mistakes like these is to stop making them.

For the sake of my ego, here’s one of my better played hands against the same guy:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($7513.50)
BB ($10000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 5
Hero bets $100, BB raises to $350, Hero calls $250

Flop: ($700) 9, 7, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $375, Hero calls $375

Turn: ($1450) Q (2 players)
BB bets $900, Hero calls $900

River: ($3250) A (2 players)
BB bets $2900, Hero calls $2900

Total pot: $9050 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 5, 5 (two pair, nines and fives).
BB had 10, 8 (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Hero won $9049.50

MP ($2234.75)
CO ($350)
Button ($1000)
SB ($2029)
BB ($3622.05)
Hero (UTG) ($1183)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J
Hero bets $40, 2 folds, Button calls $40, 2 folds

Flop: ($95) Q, 2, J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $60, Hero calls $60

Turn: ($215) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($215) 2 (2 players)

Hero checks, Button bets $155, Hero raises to $680, 1 fold

Total pot: $525 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, J (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $522

Granted I don’t rep much, but it’s also very hard to put me on a hand that needs to bluff, and TAGfish don’t like to hero call. FWIW my Jack is good on the river about 10% of the time when he bets- calling is not an option.

…and not necessarily a good one.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($5664)
SB ($8603)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K
SB calls $25, Hero checks

Flop: ($100) K, 2, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $66, SB calls $66

Turn: ($232) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $187, SB calls $187

River: ($606) J (2 players)
Hero bets $411, SB calls $411

Total pot: $1428 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 10, 2 (two pair, tens and twos).
Hero had 8, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: SB won $1427.50

Then again, he did call me with a relatively weak hand, so I guess I sort of had the right read. Then again again, he’s a lot more likely to get to the river with a weak two pair than with a weak one pair.

This time I’m on the receiving end. Villain is ordinarily a pretty big nit, but he doesn’t like me much and seems to enjoy putting moves on me. I was calling any river, though obviously this one makes it a lot easier.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2559.15)
BB ($2539.50)
UTG ($3669.15)
Hero (MP) ($2545)
CO ($2069)
Button ($3038)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $45, 1 fold, Button calls $45, 2 folds

Flop: ($117) 10, 3, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $88, Button raises to $225, Hero calls $137

Turn: ($567) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $450, Hero calls $450

River: ($1467) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2316 (All-In), Hero calls $1823 (All-In)

Total pot: $5113 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 2, 2 (two pair, tens and threes).
Hero had K, 10 (full house, tens over threes).
Outcome: Hero won $5110

BB ($1000)
Hero (SB) ($1807.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 6
Hero bets $12, BB calls $8

Flop: ($25.60) 3, 5, 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $19, BB raises to $64, Hero calls $45

Turn: ($153.60) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $72, Hero raises to $211, BB calls $139

River: ($575.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1520 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $575.60 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn’t show 10, 6 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $575.10

I don’t think there are many 7’s in his flop check-raising range. I could see him having 74s if he calls that pre-flop or 87 but probably not a hand like K7 or 75. I expected that he would shove 87 over a turn raise, but that if he just called the turn raise, I could shove unpaired rivers and win a large percentage of the time. Granted I sometimes have the best hand anyway on the turn, but that’s kind of irrelevant since it’s vulnerable and I don’t think I can call a river bet. So I turn it into a bluff on the turn, and once he calls, I expect him to have two pair or a set. The turn bet sizing is pretty consistent with that as well.

The overbet on the river (it’s about $750 into $500) is some extra encouragement for him to fold. Honestly I don’t think I’m playing a bare 7 like this. If I raise the turn for value, I have either 87 or a 7 with a heart draw. I felt shoving the river was more consistent with the 87 and also would get disproportionate folds even if he did manage some good handreading and put me on a narrow range.

On this flop, I want to put money in the pot with UTG, but not with Button. I’m probably ahead of Button’s flop calling range, but he’s going to outplay me on the turn and river even with hands like 86 and 87 that I’m beating.

If I just bet the flop, I put the squeeze on UTG, making it harder for him to continue. That’s just the opposite of what I want. Ideally if I check, he’ll bet, and then it will be Button who has the hardest time continuing. If he folds, then I can stick the rest in against UTG. Basically I’m hoping UTG will bet for me and improve my relative position by forcing Button to act before me.

If UTG doesn’t oblige by betting, oh well. At least I’ll play a smaller pot against a wider range from Button by check-calling or seeing a free turn.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($1927.50)
UTG ($842)
MP ($1052)
Button ($1911)
SB ($1032)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
UTG calls $10, 1 fold, Button bets $40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $160, UTG calls $150, Button calls $120

Flop: ($485) 7, 9, J (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $225, Button calls $225, Hero raises to $450, UTG raises to $682 (All-In), Button raises to $1751 (All-In), Hero folds

Turn: ($2299) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($2299) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $2299 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had 8, 10 (straight, Jack high).
UTG had 8, 6 (one pair, nines).
Outcome: Button won $2296

UTG surprises me with a very small bet. When Button doesn’t raise, I’m optimistic that nutted hands can be discounted from his range. I still want him out of the pot, though. The min-check-raise gives UTG room to re-open the betting by shoving, which wouldn’t be the case if I check-raised larger. Once again, the squeeze is on Button. If he folds, I’m happy calling UTG. If Button calls or 4-bets, I’m confident my KK is no good and I can get away now.

Arguably something similar could be accomplished more cheaply by just calling the flop. The problem is that there are a lot of turn cards I don’t want to see. I want Button out now, and I want UTG’s money in now, if possible. As it happened, I managed to avoid losing too much to the nuts.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($17416.75)
Hero (BB) ($10049)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, J
SB calls $25, Hero checks

Flop: ($100) 9, Q, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: ($100) A (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: ($100) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $50, Hero calls $50

Total pot: $200 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 7, 8 (one pair, threes).
Hero had 2, J (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero won $199.50

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($2692.50)
Hero (SB) ($5191.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 2
Hero bets $30, BB calls $20

Flop: ($64) 6, 4, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, BB calls $44

Turn: ($152) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $111, BB raises to $350, Hero calls $239

River: ($852) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $555, 1 fold

Total pot: $852 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, 2 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $851.50

In before commenter telling me I probably had the best hand anyway…

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2500)
UTG ($2595)
MP ($4341)
Hero (CO) ($2573)
Button ($6413)
SB ($3456)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A
UTG bets $100, 1 fold, Hero raises to $250, Button raises to $663, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2573 (All-In), Button calls $1910

Flop: ($5321) 4, Q, K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($5321) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($5321) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $5321 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had Q, A (three of a kind, Queens).
Hero had K, A (two pair, Kings and Queens).
Outcome: Button won $5318

Anyway, here’s the hand in question, where I managed to take advantage of his looseness to get three streets of value in a pretty satisfying way:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($4713)
MP1 ($2000)
MP2 ($2090)
CO ($1857)
Button ($2573)
Hero (SB) ($2000)
BB ($2000)
UTG ($2519)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
6 folds, Hero bets $80, BB calls $60

Flop: ($160) 9, 6, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $111, BB calls $111

Turn: ($382) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $269, BB calls $269

River: ($920) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $666, BB calls $666

Total pot: $2252 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 8, 8 (two pair, nines and eights).
BB mucked A, 6 (two pair, nines and sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $2249

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2300.05)
UTG ($1358.40)
MP ($1222.80)
CO ($616)
Hero (Button) ($2405.20)
SB ($3304.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 9
1 fold, MP bets $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, SB calls $9, BB raises to $72, MP calls $60, Hero calls $60, 1 fold

Flop: ($235.20) J, 8, 4 (3 players)
BB bets $144, 1 fold, Hero calls $144

Turn: ($523.20) Q (2 players)
BB bets $332, Hero raises to $890, BB calls $558

River: ($2303.20) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1298 (All-In), BB calls $1192.85 (All-In)

Total pot: $4688.90 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 10, 9 (straight, Queen high).
BB had K, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $4685.90

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($1581.60)
Hero (Button) ($1492)
SB ($1638.40)
BB ($585)
UTG ($1694.15)
MP ($1012.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
1 fold, MP bets $14, CO raises to $48, Hero raises to $150, 3 folds, CO calls $102

Flop: ($330.20) 9, 5, 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $222, CO raises to $444, Hero calls $222

Turn: ($1218.20) 9 (2 players)
CO bets $210, Hero raises to $896.80 (All-In), CO calls $686.80

River: ($3011.80) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3011.80 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had K, K (two pair, Kings and nines).
CO had 10, 10 (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: Hero won $3008.80

Preflop: Hero is MP with ??
1 fold, Hero bets $24, CO calls $24, 1 fold, SB raises to $90, 1 fold, Hero calls $66, CO calls $66

Flop: ($283.20) 6, 2, 3 (3 players)
SB bets $144, Hero calls $144, CO raises to $402, 1 fold, Villain has $1123.60 behind

Villain is showing a ton of strength here, and it’s quite possibly most profitable here to exploit his likely unbalanced range by never bluffing. If I wanted to have some kind of bluffing range here, I believe 6h3h would be the best possible hand to bluff with (and yes that is a bluff- he isn’t calling a shove with worse). However, I am not calling 63s, 62s, or 32s pre-flop. Given that those are not in my range, what is the best possible hand for me to bluff with here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($563)
CO ($186.75)
Button ($863.60)
SB ($400)
BB ($447)
UTG ($406)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, 8
1 fold, Hero bets $14, 1 fold, Button calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($34) 8, A, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $26, Button calls $26

Turn: ($86) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $68, Button raises to $200, Hero calls $132

River: ($486) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $623.60 (All-In), Hero calls $323 (All-In)

Total pot: $1132 | Rake: $3

Even though I called the turn to induce a river bluff, I think it’s a tough decision on this particular card.

Arguments in favor of calling:

1. I took a line designed to induce a bluff.

2. River is a scare card.

3. I’m getting considerably better than 2:1 pot odds.

4. Villain isn’t playing AK this way, so getting counterfeited isn’t relevant.

5. All straight draws missed, and the clubs are a backdoor draw.

Arguments in favor of folding:

1. My hand looks like a draw when I call turn, and the most obvious draw got there. Thus, this may not look like a good bluff card to Villain.

2. The club also pairs the board, meaning Villain will shove most of his turn value range on the river. On a non-pairing club, he might check behind two pairs/sets that didn’t fill up.

3. Villain could have been raising turn with a flopped gutshot and turned flush draw, in which case he got there on the river.

4. Given that I may play club draws this way and many of my other turn slowplays fill up on the river, A8 is the bottom of my range.

As you can see, I did call, though I believe that was a mistake after thinking it through more thoroughly. I didn’t give enough weight to the argument that Villain could have floated the flop with a straight draw and a backdoor draw that picked up 9 outs on the turn. Maybe it’s just bad luck that that happened this time, but those are the draws that ought to be most likely to raise the turn. Add to that the fact that I’ll have plenty of other hands in my range that can call this river, and I think I ought to fold A8, and probably shove the turn with it as well. For the record, that’s usually how I’d play it anyway, I just carried away here with trying to take advantage of an aggressive dynamic.

Results:
Button had 9, 7 (flush, ten high).
Hero had A, 8 (two pair, Aces and tens).
Outcome: Button won $1129

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($600)
BB ($609)
UTG ($723.15)
MP ($600)
Button ($1428.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 7
3 folds, Hero bets $24, BB calls $18

Flop: ($48) 4, J, A (2 players)
Hero bets $36, BB calls $36

Turn: ($120) K (2 players)
Hero bets $99, BB calls $99

River: ($318) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $441 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $318 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show Q, 7 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $316

Given that Villain doesn’t 3-bet pre-flop, he’ll rarely have AA, JJ, KK, or AK. He can show up with QT or 44, but even AJ looks like just a bluff-catcher when I shove the river.

Villain in this hand is a successful tournament player who’s been buying in at  shallow HSNL cash games lately.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($5487)
CO ($4388)
Hero (Button) ($2472)
SB ($7878)
BB ($2150)
UTG ($3592)
UTG+1 ($8701)
MP1 ($2544)
MP2 ($1277.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
6 folds, Hero bets $100, 1 fold, BB raises to $325, Hero calls $225

Flop: ($675) 5, 7, 5 (2 players)
BB bets $375, Hero calls $375

Turn: ($1425) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1425) K (2 players)
BB bets $1450 (All-In), Hero calls $1450

Total pot: $4325 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had A, A (full house, fives over Aces).
BB had 2, A (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $4322

To be fair, this is probably a lucky river for me. I doubt Villain would have shoved on a 9. Still, I was surprised by how weak his hand was. Once I call pre-flop, I doubt I’m ever folding a flop this dry, as I’ve already called off 10% of the effective stacks. A2 has particularly poor equity against my range, and I think he ought to just look at this as a pre-flop bluff and give it up there. Most people aren’t that disciplined though.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3703)
Hero (BB) ($5075)
UTG ($2374)
MP ($2080)
Button ($2000)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 5
3 folds, SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 2, 5, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $88, SB calls $88

Turn: ($296) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $377, SB raises to $877, Hero calls $500

River: ($2050) A (2 players)
SB bets $330, Hero raises to $4050 (All-In), SB calls $2348 (All-In)

Total pot: $7406 | Rake: $2

Results:
SB had 10, A (two pair, Aces and fives).
Hero had K, 5 (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $7404

Though I think I’m good 90% of the time on the river, I wasn’t initially looking to get all in. Had Villain bet anything in excess of $1000, I’d have put him on mostly bluffs but I’d also expect to be behind the majority of his value range, so I wouldn’t want to shove. His very small bet makes it look more like he’s got something that can bluff-catch and maybe even is trying to induce a bluff, so I was happy to indulge him there.

It was weird, because he timed down when I shoved, but I don’t know what he was expecting to accomplish with this little bet other than inducing a bluff shove. It’s not like I’m going to play 99 this way and make a crying call on the river. I can’t even have a busted nut flush draw, since the Ac is on the board and the Ad is in his hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($400)
SB ($191.70)
BB ($1242.75)
UTG ($599)
MP ($757.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 10
1 fold, MP bets $11, Hero calls $11, SB calls $9, 1 fold

Flop: ($37) 6, 7, 5 (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12, 1 fold

Turn: ($61) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $30, Hero calls $30

River: ($121) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $347 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $121 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show 9, 10 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $119

Note Villain’s stack size; this shove is barely more than pot.

Villain is extremely aggressive, and up to this point I’d been letting him push me off of a lot of small pots:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($419.10)
Hero (SB) ($428)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, 6
Hero bets $12, BB raises to $38, Hero calls $26

Flop: ($76) 6, K, 5 (2 players)
BB bets $52, Hero calls $52

Turn: ($180) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($180) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $68, BB raises to $329.10 (All-In), Hero calls $261.10

Total pot: $838.20 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 6, 6 (full house, sixes over Kings).
BB had 8, A (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $837.70

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (3 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1314)
BB ($1000)
Hero (Button) ($1473)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 5
Hero bets $20, 1 fold, BB calls $10

Flop: ($45) J, 7, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($45) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB calls $15

River: ($75) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $60, Hero calls $60

Total pot: $195 | Rake: $1

Results:
Hero had 6, 5 (straight, eight high).
BB had 10, 9 (straight, Jack high).
Outcome: BB won $194